18z OAX sounding looks fairly good, if you want to see rotating storms. Nice backed low level flow on sounding and across eastern NE/western IA will support tornadoes, although there is a fair bit of cloud cover over this area. Storms have fired in central NE ahead of clearing (sun has destabilized the air mass) and are moving mainly northerly. Storm motions are quite fast (at least one storm is supposedly moving 65 mph).
Strong, damaging winds look like the main threat along with flash flooding as storms transverse the Midwest this afternoon/evening.
2034Z
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SPC has just upgraded their outlook for Thursday, June 5, to a
high risk. Similar to last Thursday, this high risk is over the same region and a bit larger. All modes of severe weather are likely with the emphasis currently on damaging winds. Also, heavy rains has caused more flooding over saturated grounds and it will not take much today to cause flash flooding. More will be posted later and I'll be once again watching how things develop this afternoon and evening as I am off.
I can not recall such an active season of severe weather in at least the last 5 years. Last night, a supercell developed south of Omaha, NE and moved northeast before making a hard right turn down US Hwy 34. It was an isolated supercell, which means that it's inflow of warm, moist air into the storm was unobstructed. Hence, it sustained itself for several hours (at least 4 hours if I recall correctly). Several Iowa State students and faculty along with a few other storm chasers followed the storm as it moved due east around 15 to 20 miles per hour. Several tornadoes have been reported from last evening, but little information is known beyond that at this time.
1311Z
