Top Posts of the 2007

Below, are some of what that I consider are the top posts for 2007. Enjoy and Happy New Year!

Finals 2007

[TWISTEX] Photos Abound

TWISTEX 2007 ends

August 19, 2007 Storm Photos

A Storm Lake Sunset

September 30, 2007 Chase Day

Pennsylvania Fall Foliage

Battle of the Seasons

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas!

I pray that you have a Merry Christmas with family and friends as we reflect on Christ's birth and our need for Christ. Merry Christmas and God Bless. ~Andrew

My e-Christmas card picture was taken at the map wall where we hold our daily weather discussions on the Penn State campus. Yes, we still use paper maps...for now. :)

Severe Weather Outlook - December 23

..."When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh, and eight tiny reindeer..."

No, but close. My eyes were filled with tears as I viewed the day 2 severe weather outlook. The southeastern half of PA (and very close to State College) was in the slight risk on day 2. Normally, you don't get terribly excited about day 2 slight risk outlooks, but its December. It's Pennsylvania. You take what you get my friend.

While main storm mode will be damaging winds, SPC highlighted a chance of an isolated tornado. After no tornadoes were reported today(Saturday) in the tornado watch in the south, going thinking would be the same for tomorrow (Sunday), especially since it would be further north. I expect SPCs day 1 to have wind as the highest threat over much of day 2's outlook area. It would seem likely that there would be a 2% tornado in the southern part of the day 1 outlook as well.

Discussion
Strong cold front progged to go through central PA by mid-afternoon tomorrow(Sunday). As mentioned above, primary storm mode will be damaging winds. While we likely won't see any sunshine in State College, if perhaps (and this is wishful thinking) the sun can break through in the SE part of the state, we might be able to create a little instability. 21z SREF has no CAPE in any part of PA, so any CAPE in any part of the Commonwealth is very very wishful thinking on my part as mentioned above. However, if the models are proven wrong (that rarely happens (cough, cough)) low CAPE, high shear is never a bad combination. Low topped thunderstorms would be the best chance since we definitely aren't talking an LP supercell.

21z SREF helicity values are over 400m^2/s^2 for the average of all member (all members over 100m^2/s^2) which is good for 0-1km. 23/00z WRF run at 18z Sunday has a good swath of 850mb winds above 60kts from the Blue Ridge of Virginia through the Alleghenies (mountains to my immediate west) up to eastern Lake Erie and 700mb winds similar, but aligned more SW to NE. That is a tremendous amount of speed shear in the low and lower mid-levels.

Forecast soundings from PSU ewall/COD/BUFKIT show decent directional shear and speed shear is good as well (as they should given above discussion), although the profile will yield very little CAPE [23/00z NAM at KMDT; front through UNV {State College} between 20/21z]. Storm motion will be 50 to 60 mph.

There are several cons to chasing tomorrow. We just passed the winter solstice, which means it was just the shortest day of the year. That means that the chase day would be over by essentially 4:30p.m. Also, solar heating will have less of a chance to create instability if the sun peeks through the cloud deck. One would also have to navigate a crossing over the Susquehanna River.

If I wasn't working, would I go chasing? At this point, I'd be skeptical given lack of CAPE. However, PA doesn't see much in the way of tornadoes. The terrain isn't like Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma or Texas, but it looks relatively "flat" in SE PA compared to other parts of the state. If you had an ideal road network, you might be able to stick with a storm for a bit (as was the case on September 30 this year in Iowa), but that would not likely be the case. I would likely go (target, Harrisburg, PA) just because it is December and it is Pennsylvania. It's a two hour drive to see a new part of the state.

To think I'd even consider chasing in December in Pennsylvania is something I thought I would never think of. I would have expected this if I was in Texas, but not Pennsylvania. I guess, though, this one I'll have to dream about (cue "White Christmas" music).

New Pictures Uploaded

More photos posted from the November 18, 2007 snow in State College, PA. Enjoy!


Fall foliage pictures are located here:

Penn State Faculty/Staff Newswire - WEATHER ALERT 12.12.07

Currently working on the long post (through August), but this popped into my mailbox about an hour ago (minor deletions). So much excitement; although, I've highlighted the key part. I'm essentially an essential employee, but I'm looking forward to work tomorrow. This week could be very interesting weatherwise for a first time PAer! There is also the potential for a possible nor'easter Saturday night into Sunday. Joy!

Winter storm forecast for University Park
The National Weather Service in State College has issued a winter weather advisory, which will be in effect from 5 a.m. to 10 p.m. Thursday. Snow and sleet will overspread the region around or shortly after sunrise Thursday, and increase in intensity through the late morning and afternoon hours before gradually tapering off Thursday night. Several inches of snow and sleet accumulation can be expected by early Thursday afternoon, perhaps ending as a brief period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle in some areas. Travel will quickly become hazardous Thursday morning after the onset of precipitation. The precipitation is forecast to taper off after 2 p.m.

Any changes to the operating schedule at Penn State University Park will be made via WPSU-FM and Penn State Live, which are the official sources for weather-related delay or cancellation advisories for the University Park campus.

Employees in essential services and operations are expected to report for work in most circumstances, and should contact their supervisor -- before severe winter weather strikes -- with any questions they may have about their status.

Employees are encouraged to take responsibility for their own safety. In addition, people who do not wish to travel home because of inclement weather striking during daytime hours can take advantage of discounted hotel rooms at The Nittany Lion Inn and The Penn Stater Conference Center Hotel.

"Faculty and staff should use their own best judgment when considering traveling to campus or the need to leave work early during times of inclement weather," said Gary C. Schultz, senior vice president for finance and business. "Staff may charge their absence to vacation time when weather conditions cause a concern for personal safety. As usual, supervisors should make every effort to accommodate employees who wish to leave work early because of the weather."

Fall Foliage

So the long post about the move is coming, but it has been preempted by time-sensitive tasks. In the mean time though, I have upload some photos from my travels out to Pennsylvania. More photos will come in time.

It should be noted this will be my new format for photos. Adobe Lightroom is by far the best software program I've seen in a long time and has blown me away with its capabilities. None of the photos here have been manipulated (except adjusting exposure for Col. Unger's). Lightroom and Photoshop can coexist, but each has their own place.

I will eventually go back through all old photos that are posted on my website, TWISTEX, and others and "upgrade" to this layout as well as trim back the number of photos on some older galleries. Questions or suggestions are encouraged about the new fomrat.

Enjoy the fantastic fall foliage as snow flies in the Midwest (Iowa/Nebraska) and pellets of sleet pound me in Pennsylvania!

Pennsylvania Fall Foliage 2007

Back online, update coming soon...

It's been too long since I've posted, I know. I established internet about a week and half ago and have been taking care of a back log of items internet related, including responding to numerous emails. I am wrapping up emails tonight and hopefully will get something [lengthy] posted here shortly (by weeks end). Otherwise, some lake effect flurries today resulted in a dusting of accumulation. The wind was strong as well adding to the chill of the day.

Hello from UNV!

I have arrived in State College (UNV for weather station, SCE for airport) and am quite busy. My first day is lined up as Thursday with a comfortable starting time of 11AM...ahh, college hours. Anyway, internet service is not set up yet so it may be a while until I update all the happens since basically Oct 1. This includes info about how this job became available (actually, that goes back into August!), moving and finding a place out here (likely will make a webpage about that), what my job all entails (I don't even know all of it yet), and other items. Until then, take care.

Novemberish Weather

Well, it's been a while since I've posted here. Things have been hectic, but those have been good and bad things which I'll elaborate on at a further date.

Anyway, its been a Novemberish weekend in Storm Lake with clouds and heavy drizzle. While one may think I'm down about the weather, it's actually been refreshing. Also, refreshing was the fact that I was able to watch some college football on Saturday. Both Iowa/Illinois and Iowa State/Texas games were on TV, so I was able to enjoy watching the Hawkeyes win and see some of the familiar parts of Ames (the game wasn't too pretty to watch). Any enjoyable afternoon, even working outside in the drizzle cleaning the leaves out of the gutter and bringing some wood inside for a fire.

Weatherwise, as mentioned at the top, it has been a rainy and cool weekend. However, the week ahead doesn't look to change much with chances for rain through throughout the week. In addition with rain chance, parts ND may see some flakes flying come Friday morning if one model has anything to say about it, although at this point don't pack up the suitcases for the warmer South. Temperatures in Iowa will remain around average for mid-October (62 is the average for today) and if you don't mind some wet weather, enjoy this week!

September 30, 2007 Chase Day

I went chasing yesterday (Sunday) in western Iowa. While I didn't see any tornadoes, still an enjoyable day. Video and photos can be found at
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/chase/chase.html

The summary will be up later on Tuesday.

September 17, 2007 Forecast

Currently under a severe thunderstorm watch until 1AM (cancelled about 20 minutes ago at 12:11AM), but thunderstorms just beginning to move into IA. While I'm not 100% sure, my guess is that they anticipated development ahead of the cold front that is sweeping in from the west, but SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 1000J/kg of CAPE with around ~100J/kg inhibition. Evidently, not enough forcing yet to get things fired up.



Tomorrow's severe weather threat may not be as high as I would like it...well, it never is. Anyway, with the cold front nearing, still see redevelopment tomorrow afternoon, but that could be east of the SLB area. In any case, storms will be more linear and multicellular in nature along the cold front. However, the warm front up in MN into WI may provide a chance for some supercells to get going in the afternoon hours. This is hoping it busts through any cap.

September 16, 2007 Forecast

A very cool start to the weekend on Saturday morning ended up with Sunday afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. It was definitely a weekend in Iowa during fall (not the official fall yet). Monday promises to be even warmer than Sunday as a warm fronts slides across the quad-state area, but as the front moves through, it may also trigger some showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe, especially north of and SLB to SUX line. The better chance for severe weather at this time appears to be Tuesday evening.



The Iowa/Iowa State game was held this weekend and the Cyclones prevailed (I couldn't watch it since it was on Versus, which we and about half the state don't get). However, both teams played horribly in my opinion. Iowa State should have blown the game open and by half been up by 28 points if they could have found the end zone. If it were a few years ago with the ISU kickers, it might have been 0-0 at half. Iowa definitely showed flaws in their game from special teams to a young quarterback. While ISU should celebrate, I think both teams have long seasons ahead.

September 12, 2007

A beautiful clear evening out as the stars shine brightly. A nice, cool breeze greeted me as I got out of my car this evening and walked into the house. It shouldn't be as cold as last night with a nice day tomorrow with temperatures in the mid 70s. However, don't be fooled as Friday morning may bring some patchy frost to the area.



0436Z/11:36PM

In un-weather related news, I worked a turn around shift. I worked this evening from 6-10 and tomorrow I'll be back at 8-4. Short nights...gotta love them, but I don't mind and it will be a nice late afternoon/early evening to have off.

September 11, 2007 Forecast

No doubt about it folks, fall is here. Lows will be dipping into the low 40s and upper 30s across the area tonight. Patchy frost definitely can't be ruled out, especially in rural areas far away from any sort of heat source (ie buildings). While temperatures will rebound after cool nights in the upper 60s and lower 70s, still a tad below normal for this time of September. However, I'm not too worried that snowflakes will be flying anytime soon as October can see temperatures in the 80s and even low 90s.



Lest We Forget

0417Z/11:17PM

September 9, 2007 Forecast

I did notice that there is an error in my posting the forecast. Since I just replace the image every new day of the week, this means that last Sunday's forecast will now be what I posted below. I'm not sure if I'll remedy this or just let it slid by. I think if anything, I'll add a little space where I can put the valid time for the forecast. I'll have to think on this...I thought I had all the kinks worked out.

Rainy (0.15" so far in this "storm") and "Cold" for tonight with a drier week after Monday and a slow warming trend as we head towards next weekend...which seems a long ways off.

September 8, 2007 Forecast

Unseasonably cool weather along with some rain chances will be moving in for the remainder of the weekend before some moderation and drying by Monday/Tuesday. While this cool weather will be perfect for those who have yard work to do outside (as long as you dodge the rain showers), the nights may require a warm blanket as lows dip into the upper 40s. By Monday, things will turn the corner with temperatures starting to climb back toward 70 with sunshine, but don't get use to it. By next weekend, the mercury may be struggling to make it into the lower 60s!



1805Z/1:05PM

September 6, 2007 Forecast

Thunderstorms are moving through the area currently with the cold front past Sioux Falls and approaching Sioux City at this time. SLB is still warm and muggy as the storms approach. Hopefully, a decent shot of rain for the evening, even though ~14" of rain was plenty for August. The new grass seed would appreciate the rain as well.

September 5, 2007 Forecast

September 4, 2007 Forecast

September 3, 2007 Forecast

A very warm day in Storm Lake as temperatures soared towards 90, although unconfirmed as AWOS sites are down across Iowa. In any regard, it was a great day to hit the lakes as I notice numerous boats on Storm Lake throughout much the afternoon while I worked. It was a busy and difficult today at work, but the 3-10 Sunday and 7AM-3PM today have drained me. Good thing tomorrow is an off day...

Tangent...looks like the unoffical end of summer may bring about a cool spell later this week as temperatures have peaked today and should slowly start a downward trend to cooler temperatures. It's a little outside of my forecast, but rain chances look possible on Thursday and with those rain showers will come some cool overnight temperatures--perhaps in the middle 40s! If you're a warm temperature lover, enjoy the next several days!



0344Z/10:44PM