September 17, 2007 Forecast

Currently under a severe thunderstorm watch until 1AM (cancelled about 20 minutes ago at 12:11AM), but thunderstorms just beginning to move into IA. While I'm not 100% sure, my guess is that they anticipated development ahead of the cold front that is sweeping in from the west, but SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 1000J/kg of CAPE with around ~100J/kg inhibition. Evidently, not enough forcing yet to get things fired up.



Tomorrow's severe weather threat may not be as high as I would like it...well, it never is. Anyway, with the cold front nearing, still see redevelopment tomorrow afternoon, but that could be east of the SLB area. In any case, storms will be more linear and multicellular in nature along the cold front. However, the warm front up in MN into WI may provide a chance for some supercells to get going in the afternoon hours. This is hoping it busts through any cap.