Thursday, May 24, 2007 TWISTEX Summary

Thursday morning came fast even though it was a “late” wakeup of 7:50. We had hoped to be on the road by 9, but I think we all realized this was not going to happen. In any regard, Chris, Justin and myself got packed up and put our stuff our vehicles and went over to the Red Baron to have breakfast shortly before 9. A couple of eggs, toast and some orange juice was a delicious breakfast. Chris had his cup of coffee, although he said it was “the worst cup of coffee ever.” Right after he said this, he had more. I guess his desire for caffeine outweighed the taste.

It was around 9:30AM and we still hadn’t seen Clark yet. So as we headed towards his room when all of the sudden out a walkway in the center of the hotel Clark pops out. He had just woken up about 15 minutes earlier and looked like it too. Anyway, after he had thrown his stuff in the van, we went to Tim’s room to see what he wanted us to do with the freezer and the probe. Tim was on the phone with Carsten Peter, National Geographic photographer from Germany. The gist of the conversation from what Tim told us was this…

Peter: Tim! You’re getting all the tornadoes! Should I come over now?
Tim: I think you can wait until June, Carsten. Most of these tornadoes have been whipnadoes.
Peter: Oh, okay. I guess I’ll wait.

After that humor, we found out what to do with the probes and then Tim said goodbye to the ISU crew. We got out of town around 10:30AM and traveled on some state highway that had no cars going eastbound for likely over an hour. Outstanding Kansas landscape with fantastic weather for traveling. Also, came across some flooding, which looked like moderate to major agriculture flooding, but hard to say since I’m not sure how big the rivers/creeks were before they were swollen though.

We stopped in Salina for gas and a McDonald’s stop. We actually sat down for this meal and it was enjoyable to be able to chat about whatever we ended up chatting about. We left there around 3PM and got into KC around 5PM or so (aka rush hour). However, unlike when we traveled down, we followed GPS and the route really didn’t lead us into too much traffic in my opinion until we got back near I35 again. Somewhere in here we placed bets on when we would get into Ames. I think Chris had 8:30, Andrew at 8:41, Adam and 8:45 and Justin at 9.

I35 through Missouri was fairly boring as the landscape just isn’t comparable to Kansas. Anyway, while we were headed north on 35, Adam and I noticed we were under a 1/4 tank of gas and we had just passed a sizable Missouri town. So, being the good Navigator that I am, I saw that Bethany, MO was up the road a bit and knew we would need to stop there. Adam agreed as did Chris and Justin. Well, as we neared Bethany, I don’t know if we sprung a leak in our gas tank or what, but Adam pointed out to me that you could watch the needle slowly dropping towards the E. As we pulled into the gas station, we had to be running on fumes as we were at E. Let’s just say it was an expensive gas bill since M3 was essentially empty.

While we were in Bethany, I gave the parentals a call to let them know where I was currently. Mom thought I should stay in Ames since it would be around 8:30 when we would get into Ames and I would be tired on the drive home. Well, being the stubborn son that I am, I overruled and said I was coming home.

The rest of the drive on I35 was quiet into Iowa. We took Hwy 17 back to the ag farm as I35 was out of the way and that worked out quite well. We arrived back into Ames (ag farm) at 8:20PM with no fanfare. Adam and Chris returned to their places of living in Ames while Justin headed back to Galena. I had to pick up something in Ames at agronomy and also figured I should fill up with gas as I didn’t want to run out on the way home ($3.21/gal). By the time I left Ames, it was shortly after 9 and I arrived back in Storm Lake around 11:30—bed by 11:40.

Photos
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070524/index.html

Route
http://tinyurl.com/2aml65

Current Date/Time: May 30, 2007, 1:41PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Currently, a rain shower is trudging through SL, which fits the mood for the day. Models continue the quiet weather through the duration of this week with scattered showers and thunderstorms through weeks end. No TWISTEX deployment is likely.

Mid to late next week offers the next chance of severe weather that may require a TWISTEX deployment (new set of crew) as a trough digs deep into the South, but after the first full of week of June, long range models are painting a zonal flow (west to east) pattern aloft keeping storms confined to the northern Plains.

Tuesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Photos Abound

Still shots from last weeks chase. If you want any larger, possibly uncopyrighted prints, just send me an email or make a comment.

Enjoy!
Sorge

May 21, 2007 - Mobile mesonets prep
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070521/index.html

May 22, 2007 - Ames to Kansas + Kansas chase
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070522/index.html

May 23, 2007 - KS, OK, TX chase
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070523_1/index.html
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070523_2/index.html
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070523_3/index.html

May 24, 2007 - KS to Ames return trip
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ajsorge/twistex07/070524/index.html

Current Date/Time: May 29, 2007, 4:54PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Previous discussion holds true with quiet weather the remainder of this week. While there are chances for thunderstorms, they will not warrant a TWISTEX deployment.

I’m currently working on the photos and should have those up later this evening. I will likely add better descriptions, but for right now I just list where I'm at and what direction I'm looking. Also will make a post on Thursday’s summary from last week either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Monday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 28, 2007, 11:49PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

I just posted Wednesday’s summary. If you stay up late or get up early, I won’t have posted any pictures yet. I’ll be inserting a few photos into Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s summary tomorrow as well as posting a link to images from last week’s chases. Also will get up Thursday’s summary, but that was mostly the ride back to Ames along with the flooding down in Kansas.

On the chase front, prospects remain low for a chase; therefore, suitcase has been unpacked.

Sunday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007 TWISTEX Summary

Wednesday morning came far too early, but 6:50 wakeup was definitely later than the day before. After a quick shower and packing up the gear, it was time to check weather data/email. I was a little disappointed that the day hadn’t been raised to a high risk, but looking at the data it was not warranted. Overall, Wednesday looked better than Tuesday as shear was better and features at upper levels came more together with low-level features. Around 8, we headed over to Perkins, which was conveniently located just west of our hotel. A tasty, scrumtulicious breakfast was had and it was around 9:00 when we finished. Turned out Tim had decided the night before that we could have slept in until 8 or so since we weren’t going to leave too early. Oh well, I didn’t care too much and allowed for a more relaxed morning.

So around 9:30, we departed Great Bend, KS south on Highway 56. We picked up gas in Kinsley, KS for $3.32/gal. As we headed south on Hwy 183, we could see two smoke plumes to our south. I figured it was just some farmer burning grass in a ditch, but as we got closer Tim radioed that we were likely seeing the fires from the Greensburg debris pile.

I was driving so I was shooting blindly instead of driving blindly. As we came in on the west side of Greensburg, there was a continuous flow of dump trucks hauling out debris. On the side of the road, tree limbs that were either destroyed by the tornado or had been cut were just laying next to the side of the road. And I’m not talking a few limbs; a lot of tree limbs and the trees that were still standing were shredded. At the intersection of Hwy 54 and 183 (west side of Greensburg), there was a state trooper basically keeping onlookers/looters out. He waved our team through the 4 way stop and we continued south. Both Adam and I figured we would run into the tornadoes path further south of town, and we did. I’m not sure how many miles it was, but at least 2 miles of completely new telephone poles. Farmsteads completely gone and the only reason you knew there had been a building there was that there were remnants of trees or people going through the debris.

Adam and I also discussed that this would have been an excellent tornado to deploy on if it had been feasible. That’s not saying I wanted the destruction that occurred, just that with such a long trek, powerful tornado that would have hit at least 2 miles worth of road, many probes could have been put down and valuable data could have been collected.

After we got past the debris, we continued south on 183, then a quick skip west on highway 160/183 brought us to the town of Sitka. A few miles south of Sitka we ran into construction and we had about a 5-minute stop there. I wish I would have gotten out sooner to take some pictures, but stayed in the vehicle for about 4 minute. Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas has some awesome landscape out in the middle of nowhere. Tim/Tony and the construction stop sign lady talked for a bit, likely about his vehicle and the mobile mesonets. After we got through the construction, we were in Oklahoma.

We stopped in Laverne, OK for a gas stop at $3.35/gal and some food. We were there for about an hour and a half until 2:30. This allowed some time to borrow some of Tim’s wireless and look at some good ol’ data. Surface maps, the 18Z sounding from Amarillo, and even a radar loop (Adam was feeling dangerous). Supposedly Jeff Piotrowski (avid chaser and gets close to tornadoes) was at the gas station as well, but I didn’t see him cause I was busy looking at data with Adam and setting up the datalogger for operation. As we departed the gas station, I pulled down a quick update and got an MD (mesoscale discussion; usually talks about trends in the weather and whether or not a watch will be required) that had just come out for our area. I read it to Adam and he radioed to the team since none of them had read it yet. As we headed south, Adam was watching the dewpoint creep up, and actually it was going up fairly rapidly for the distance we had traveled. I don’t recall exactly the change, but it was around 4 degrees within 10 miles or so.

We then took Hwy 83 west, but had to pull off as Tim’s GPS was having issues. So, the team got out and we looked at weather data again as it had been around 1/2 hour or so. The current time was shortly after 3PM so we pulled down the updated SPC outlook with no change as well as some surface data. Sometime during all this, Chris received a phone call from Eric Hanson of KCCI-TV in Des Moines, IA. Evidently, Dr. Gallus knew Chris’ number and passed it on to them because KCCI was having a slow news day so they wanted to do a story on TWISTEX. So, Chris asked us if we wanted to do a phone interview and we did. So, everybody from ISU (4 of us) piled into the snackwagon/M3. Chris called Eric back and put him on speaker and then whoever felt like answering answered the questions. The process took around 10 minutes. Eric wanted a picture of either some of the storms or of us so after the phone interview, Chris set up his tripod, we pulled up M2 to M3 and snapped some photos. Unfortunately, wireless signal was sparse in northern Texas panhandle so the pictures weren’t sent until 1:30AM. Just a tad bit late for the 10PM newscast.

By the time we had snapped the photos, Tony informed us we had been PDSed (PDS tornado watch) and the GPS had been fixed. We turned around and headed into Texas on Hwy 60 as the storms off to our west were beginning to mature.

We got into Canadian, TX around 4:30 and topped off the tanks. Road options down in Texas as far as paved or gravel roads are sparse. So we took about the only paved road, Hwy 83, and went northwest on it. We stopped on top of a hill with a communications tower on it and watched the storm for a bit, but then decided to head west a bit further. We staked out territory around 5:15PM at the intersection of Hwy 281/83 and watched as on the backside of the wall cloud there was some rotation, but again nothing touched down. We sat there for a bit, then decided to head back to the same hill we were on before to view the tornado warned cell to our west. As we returned around 5:45PM, a tour group had also pulled in, but they never bothered us. We watched the storm off to the west and saw some fingers of scud, but nothing definitive from our location that we could discern as rotation or funnel cloud. It had already gone HP on us.

We likely spent about half an hour to 45 minutes on top of the hill, then Tim decided he was going to get some hail samples and headed off (Instead of hail, Tim saw 2 tornadoes).

The mobile mesonets went back to the intersection of Hwy 24 and 83 and sat for about 5 minutes, but Cathy wanted to go a little farther west down the road. That was fine by us so we went a few miles west and went onto some gravel. We stopped and watched as the rotation in the clouds continued, but it just would not pull its act together. Some spectacular lightning and a few fairly close, but where the rotation was, there was not a tornado. On the leading edge of the storm, however, there was a brief tornado followed by a funnel cloud. Then a little later, Chris noticed off to our west a brief funnel cloud, but that too was short-lived. This all occurred around 7PM. The inflow with this storm was fairly cool, and the outflow was even colder.

We left that location and headed back east on Hwy 83. As we did, we got into the inflow region. This was really cool to observe with the mesonet data. The winds switched, dewpoints rose, as did the temperature. Being able to drive through this boundary is incredible for some reason, maybe because it can be viewed in real-time. Anyway, we headed back east on Hwy 83, then north on Hwy 23, then east again on Hwy 3260. We were basically trying to stay with this storm and as we headed east, we ran into a lot of chasers and even media. One of the media’s SUVs looked like there was a studio in the backseats so they could report live. Anyway, we finally got to a hill with not too many people on it and took some photos and video. From storm reports, there was a tornado with the storm that was off to our north, but we couldn’t see anything because of the rain falling around it. So, we left that location around 8PM to go south to catch up to what looked like a better storm on radar.

So, back west on 3260, south on Hwy 23, west on Hwy 83, west on Hwy 281 and then south finally on Hwy 70 led us down into the Canadian River Valley. We wanted to get on top of a hill, but actually the valley offered about the best view. So we sat down there with the Texas Tech mobile mesonet and watched (as always) outstanding lightning through 9:30 or so. There was some impressive landscape and an impressive storm, but since it had also gone HP we couldn’t see much, especially after dark. Eventually, Tim met up with us and we headed north on 70. As we did, Tim talked to Josh Wurman (DOW 3; Doppler on Wheels) and found that there was some rotation/possible tornado in the storm we were currently punching, but wasn’t near us. So we continued through some heavy rain/daily car wash.

Bruce brought up a good point as we traveled north that we should find a bit to eat. Again, we hadn’t eaten supper and again I wasn’t hungry. I’m not sure if it’s the fact that I’m really hungry, but my mind has been too busy to think about food or if I’m not hungry at all. Anyway, we came into Liberal, TX and saw an Applebee’s just off the road. We pulled in there, but they were closed. However, Tim in all of his awesomeness talked to the manager/supervisor and they allowed us in. While we couldn’t order off the main menu, they allowed for appetizers. They were filling too.

Another interesting thing happened at our table. Adam and Chris had been driving our vehicles and Justin and I were going to take over until we got into Garden City, KS. Adam and Chris got water, but Justin and I got Mountain Dew. Now, I’m not one to drink caffeine and it’s a rather rare occurrence, but I knew I would need it. I drank around 40oz and I think it equated to 1 oz.=90 seconds of energy. “What kind of math is that Andrew?” you ask. Well, the drive was around an hour and a half (so 90 minutes) and I was fairly awake for the first hour. However, the last half hour was a struggle to stay awake as Adam had fallen asleep and there wasn’t a terrible lot to look at. Anyway, as we pulled into Garden City, Tony comes on over CB and acts like a steward on an airplane. It was very humorous, but given the time of 1:30AM anything would be.

We checked into the Best Western, got our rooms and most crashed shortly thereafter. However, I stayed up a bit, sent the picture to KCCI and made a post. Luckily, we didn’t need to be on the road right away, although we (ISU crew) had planned on a 9:00AM departure.

Current Date/Time: May 27, 2007, 11:31PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Sorry about no updated summary today. Church, graduation receptions, finalizing flight/hotel arrangements for a conference and eating beaver tails (not literally, and no meteorologists, while it is a weather phenomenon, I don’t think one can eat a beaver tail cloud) took up my Sunday. I did, however, figure out the routes that were taken on Wednesday and Thursday and those have been posted below. Also, have received permission to post photos from this past week’s operations and will do so likely tomorrow.

12Z data suggests no major outbreaks of tornadic weather this week. While there is a fairly decent chance tomorrow of severe weather, and even a few tornadoes across the Dakotas, the setup will not be multiple days and thus no TWISTEX operations will be executed. Overall, the rest of May will not likely require TWISTEX operations and next chance for activation will be possibly during the first full week of June. This means I will likely unpack my suitcase tomorrow. Sadness. Hopefully though June will not disappoint those going out, and I really hope that deployment of the probes occurs, even if I can’t be there to deploy.

Again, I apologize for the delay in posting the logs from the chases, but they will come.
Have a great Memorial Day!

May 23, 2007 Chase Route
http://tinyurl.com/ypb6e9

May 24, 2007 Chase Route
http://tinyurl.com/2aml65

Saturday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 26, 2007, 3:42PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Wednesday’s summary may be a bit late (ie Sunday) as unexpected family is in town and also have some graduation parties to attend.

In any regard, models don’t look too promising through the end of May for another TWISTEX deployment as a cold front sweeps through after Memorial Day. Next shot looks to be the weekend of June 8th, but that is way too far out to know what severe threat this will pose.

Friday’s Results: None, catching up on sleep.

TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007 TWISTEX Summary

Below is the summary for May 22, 2007. A total of 9 tornadoes touched down this day with one being viewed by the TWISTEX team. No successful probe deployments were made, although the RFD field was likely sampled.

I've proofread this once and everything makes sense to me, but to the reader there may be gaps in my logic/thinking, please let me know. Also, if you have any questions, want something clarified, or elaborated on, please let me know. I also hope to add some pictures either later today or tomorrow to break up the text some.

The route we took can be found by using Google Maps:
http://tinyurl.com/24vdmq
--------------------------------
Probe Director (PD); Mesonet Director (MD); Mobile Mesonet # (M#)

PD: Tim Samaras and Tony Laubach
M1/MD: Bruce Lee and Cathy Finley – Wind Logistics
M2: Chris Conoan and Justin Gehrts
M3/Snackwagon: Adam Clark and Andrew Ansorge

Tuesday started very early in Ames, IA with a wakeup of 5:20AM to get ready, look at weather data briefly and make a post. After I had completed those tasks, I left Kang’s place to pick up Adam and then head to the ag farm for a 6:30 departure. All of us were there around 6:30, which was rather surprising and we left around 7 after luggage had been transferred. Our initial target was Dodge City, KS.

Both the mesonets needed gas so we stopped in Ames to top off the tanks. Needless to say, we (well, mostly Adam) had about half a dozen people ask us what was on top of our vehicle and where we were headed. It’s rather humorous the looks and stares the vehicles attract.

We took I35 south with a gas up in Cameron, MO where gas was $3.36/gal. Then continued south into KC and missed our GPS intended exit, but got onto I70 westbound with no problems. As we exited KC, we saw something that was rather scary. There was an older gentleman going eastbound in the westbound lanes. Needless to say, it was a surreal sight to see and luckily there was no incident as we passed. There was a DOT grass cutter on the opposite shoulder and a sheriff was heading that direction as well so hopefully that was resolved with no injuries/deaths.

As we continued west on I70, we called Tim to check-in with him. He was rather surprised (in a good way) at where we were at and also let us know that the 12z model data continued to look good. The drive on I70 is rather dull, but the landscape is fairly sweet. A brief stop in Salina, KS for gas and food around 1PM allowed for more mobile mesonet questions about what we were doing and if the bad weather was going to be near Salina. We continued on I70 and checked in with Tim, who continued to seem excited about the day, and found out that the target was moved to WaKeeney, KS. We continued west on I70 and arrived in WaKeeney, KS around 3:30, which was just a little earlier than Tim and earlier than Bruce and Cathy from Minnesota arrived. We again filled up with gas and then met back near the interstate in a hotel parking lot. Tim was there at this point with his truck attracting other chasers/enthusiasts. Bruce and Cathy arrived about a half an hour later.

At this point, the mobile mesonets began the startup procedure for the dataloggers. We all ran into a problem with the GPS time and datalogger time not being in-sync, but with Bruce and Cathy that was quickly resolved. Also, M3 had the pleasure of having 300lbs of dead weight in our vehicle. We had a 200lb probe that measures the 3-d wind field (u, v, w or x, y, z), which Adam and I will have to deploy. Honestly, when Adam and I lifted it, it didn't even feel like 200lbs. Tim has it rigged up so we can carry it like a stretcher, which makes it much easier to move around. We also have a freezer in our car so if and when Tim has large hail hit his truck, we can freeze the ice samples. There are many small details about things to remember on data loggers and weather probes hopefully we remember them all.

After a little more waiting, we left WaKeeney around 4:30 and went a little further west on I70 to Quinter, KS as we could see towers of clouds going up to our southwest. After going south on Castle Rock Road, we stopped and watched the storm develop around 5:10PM.

Around 5:40PM, M2 was sent west into the back side of the developing storm to see if an RFD had developed, but after 3-4 miles and no change in the environment they returned back to the rest of the team. While M2 went into the storm, M1, M3 and PD headed back north to the south side of Quinter and continued to watch the storm develop around 5:40. This was a brief stop and then we went through Quinter and the team split. M1 and M2 went west on Old Highway 40 while M3 and PD went east on on Old Highway 40. Since I was in M3, all I know M1/M2 were doing was trying to sample the RFD region of the storm while M3/PD were trying to deploy probes and measure the environment in front of the tornado.

M3/PD headed north on County Road (CR)-74 and watched as the storm continued to show some broad rotation and scud. However, off to our north there appeared to be a funnel cloud forming, but it was later determined that it was scud as well. While we watched the storm, a local drove up to us and got out and talked for a while about what we were doing and what he thought the storm was doing. We just took it all in stride and he left a little while later. We had a little pea sized hail and a few marble sized hailstones, but nothing too exciting. As the storm moved off to our northeast, we began to take an east option, but Tim quickly decided to turn around as the road was mud-slick.

We headed back south on CR-74 to find a better east road, and then took CR-BB east for a ways.

We watched the storm briefly before heading south on unmarked gravel road (CR-84?). We went about 2 miles east on that, then north on Saint Peter Road where we ran into a cop with lights on watching the storm. We passed him and turned east onto River Road. This road had a lot of other chasers and chase tours. We went by really slow and as far away from people as possible for safety. Eventually, we found a road that was a dead end, and took that as we figured not too many people would be up on top of this hill. And no one was there except us. We watched the thunderstorm move off to the northeast with no fanfare from about 6:50-7:10PM. This allowed for a quick snack break before we decided we wanted to continue with this storm. It was interesting to look back to the south and see blue sky as we were on the southern most storm, which is where the inflow to the storm is not obstructed by other storms farther to the south.

We got back onto River Road and headed east, which led us back to paved Hwy 283. Again, tons of chasers parked along side of the road in the ditches. According to Chris, this was nothing compared to a few weeks ago when they were out during the first weekend of May. Still, numerous people pulled over and in the ditches taking pictures and video. However, we wanted to deploy probes so we continued north on Hwy 283. Off to our west, we could see scud clouds being lifted up fairly rapidly into the storm, but no funnel cloud or tornado. As the road turned northeast, Tim or Tony said over the radio that there was a funnel. Adam and I didn't see anything, but as we turned onto a gravel road, there was a funnel and a few seconds later it was on the ground. We went about a mile west on the gravel, then had a north mud/gravel road, which we took. Tim said we might have to watch the tornado as the road quickly turned dangerous muddy. One more ravine and there was a truck stuck in the mud. Even though we didn't continue on the road, we had to go back the way we came in. Turning around and keeping the car on the road was done by some great driving by Adam.

Eventually, we got back on Hwy 283 and headed north toward Hill City, KS. We watched as what was left of the tornado became detached from the main cloud base and dissipated. We could tell as we traveled north that hail had fallen, maybe up to marble size. Once we were in Hill City, PD changed drivers and we headed east on Hwy 24. We started to punch the core with heavy rain and some small hail, but decided that we would turn back west on Hwy 24 and try to go south of the storm, then east to get in front off it. As we headed back west, we ran into M1/M2 as they were heading east on 24. PD decided that they were going to try and sample a hail core (I think) and told M3 to join M1/M2. So, we turned around and again headed back east on Hwy 24. We basically gave the mesonet vehicles a car wash as we punch the northern part of the storm. I’m not exactly sure how long we were in the core, but felt like 15-20 minutes, perhaps more as we had heavy rain and visibility less than ¼ mile. As things cleared, we could see some scud to our south, but again nothing overly exciting. A tornado warning was to our west, but repositioning on the storm was difficult as paved roads were far and few between and all gravel/mud road options would be in poor condition. So, we headed south around Webster Reservoir towards the town of Zurich on Webster Lake Road.. A short stint on Hwy 18 eastbound led us to Hwy 183 and we took that south to Hays, KS. By the time we were south of the storm, it was fairly dark.

We terminated the chase and found that PD was just north of Ellis, KS to our west. We got on I70 and headed west to meet up with him and enjoy a light show. I don’t have any photos, but incredible lightning show as it was continous flashes and strikes. Tim and Tony tried to locate a hotel room, but they were booked solid around our area. Eventually, a Best Western in Great Bend, KS offered us an overnight option. We continued to watch the light show, but after radar indicated large hail (I believe 3”?), we decided to get out of its way and headed east on I70.

We stopped in Hays, KS to pick up gas during a tornado warning. The first gas station we pulled into had all of its lights and pumps on, but were closed. We guess they sought shelter, so we went across the street to another gas station. As we filled, fire trucks went down the street with lights and announced “Be advised to take shelter immediately.” As far as we could tell, the doppler indicated tornado was on the leading edge of storms. While we saw some scud thanks to lighting flashes, no tornadoes. After refueling, the team continued east on 70 to Russell, then south on 281 to Great Bend, KS. We arrived around 11:30PM.

After shutting down and unloading the gear and luggage from the vehicles, I think most of us were ready for bed. However, we had not had supper yet, although I don’t think I was really hungry. Now, it’s hard to find a place that’s open that time of night, even in what was likely a big town. Somehow we found out Burger King was open 24 hours so we drove a short ways down the road. We all pulled in to find that the lobby was closed, but the drive thru was open. No problem, right? Wrong. The mobile mesonets and Tim’s truck with its hail shield wouldn’t fit under the drive-thru window. So, at 12:15AM, 8 people walked thru the Burger King drive-thru. Needless to say, it was rather hilarious.

While we waited for our food, Bruce and Cathy talked about the issues with mesonets being destroyed by drive-thrus during VORTEX (Verification of the Origin of Tornadoes Experiment). Evidently, Sonic’s was to blame for a number of casualties to mobile mesonets and lead investigator Eric Rasmussen was rather displeased. What made it more interesting was that we had just pulled our vehicles closer to the drive-thru into a Sonics as the line of storms were moving in.

After we had our food, we headed back to the hotel to eat our supper/midnight snack. After a quick post, getting all the gear charging, it was definitely bedtime around 1:30AM, a total of 20 hours awake.

Tuesday's summary is going to have to wait. I have most of it written, but am having some difficulty figuring out what gravel roads we were on. That, and I'm tired. Sorry for the delay.

Corrections

So a few corrections from previous posts...

• Bruce and Kathy Lee are not from St. Cloud State, but rather from WindLogics out of Grand Rapids, MN.
• The explanation of the mobile mesonets was incorrect. I figured this out Tuesday morning, but haven't had the time to fix the picture. The updated picture below is correct.

That's all I can think of right now, but if there are more I will post.

Frequently Used Terms

Below are some common terms I have used in previous and likely further posts. Hopefully, this is helpful to the non-meteorologists. To the meteorologists, hopefully I have a done well describing the jargon in layman's terms and if I haven't, let me know.

If anyone has suggestions or questions, don't hesitate to email me.

500mb: This is a around 5000m (~16000ft) above ground level.

MCS (mesoscale convective system)/multicell storms: A line/cluster of thunderstorms and rain that covers a large area, usually over 100km horizontal distance.

Dryline: A sharp gradient between high dewpoints and low dewpoints.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center): Entity that issues severe thunderstorm and tornado watches as well as monitors heavy snow and rain and fire weather.

Zulu time (###Z): This is the time most meteorological products are issued in. Model runs come out at 00, 06, 12, 18Z. To get local time (in the Midwest), you would subtract 5 hours during daylight time and subtract 6 hours during standard time. So 18Z would be 1300, or 1PM. 00Z would be 1900, or 7PM.

GFS (Global Forecasting Systems): Global forecasting model that goes out 16 days with coarse resolution. This is a long range model.

NAM (North American Model): A high resolution model with a forecast area only covering North America, particularly the US. This only goes out 3.5 days and is a short range model.

WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting): A high resolution model with a forecast that goes out 3 days. This is the newest model.

SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast): 22 models that provide varying statistical analysis (mean, minimum and maximum value, standard deviation, probability) on weather fields from temperature to CAPE.

Directional shear/speed shear: A picture does better here.



















Soundings: A picture again does a much better job than words. Temperature is the red (line at right) and dewpoint is green line (line further to the left). The blue line in the middle is the parcel path, but I won't go into that.














LI (lifted index): A calculated value found by subtracting the temperature at 500mb from the parcel temperature. You can do it yourself. On the left side of the graph above, you see 500(mb). Take the red line (temperature) minus the blue line (parcel temperature) at 500mb. So, 0C - (-10C) gives around 10 for a lifted index. This means convection is not likely. If a negative value was given, thunderstorms would be possible between 0 and -2 and probable/likely lower than -3.

CAPE (convective available potential energy): This is measured in J/kg (energy/mass). A positive CAPE is good for storms, with a higher value meaning thunderstorms could be . The more CAPE, the faster postively buoyant parcels will rise.

CIN: This is just the opposite of CAPE. If too much CIN exists and there is no forced lifting (from a front), then storms may not develop.

Helicity: Amount of rotation that is found in a storm's updraft.

LCLs (lifted condensation level): The level where air needs to be lifted to become saturated to produce clouds. For severe weather, we like this to be close to the ground as it aids the potential of tornadoes forming.

700mb temps/cap: This can give an idea of whether or not a “cap” will suppress thunderstorm development and varies with the time of year.

Hodographs: Used to measure vertical wind shear by tracing the path of a weather balloon as it goes up with height. A curved hodograph would suggest supercells (which tend to produce tornadoes) are likely.

Loaded gun thermal sounding: Usually has large amount of CAPE, a very negative LI, but also contains a cap so that thunderstorms form later in the day after reaching peak heating. See example.















RFD (rear flank downdraft): This is a region of air typically behind a tornado that is usually warmer and drier than the air inflow air. The RFD in the picture is towards the left side.



















HP supercell (high precipitation supercell): This is where there is weak speed shear aloft allows for the rain to fall near the updraft. This can produce a tornado that is rain-wrapped and not viewable to you.

PDS tornado watch (particularly dangerous situation): These are not issued often because they signify that there is a high probability of EF2-EF5 (strong/violent) tornadoes will occur.

Current Date/Time: May 25, 2007, 11:28AM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

What can be expected in the next few days…

Today:
A post on frequently used terms that non-meteorologist may not understand
Corrections to posts I’ve made this week
Tuesday’s summary

Tomorrow:
Normal TWISTEX status message
Wednesday’s summary

Sunday:
Normal TWISTEX status message
Thursday’s summary (non-chase day, but still some interesting things to write about)

These may include pictures, but I forgot to ask Tim about whether or not we can post pictures (I’m guessing we likely can). I can say that there are no tornado pictures simply because the tornadoes viewed were not long lived.

Thursday’s Results: None; we traveled back from Garden City, KS and saw quite a bit of flooding.

TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
• Give thanks for the safe travel the past few days.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 24, 2007, 1:57AM
Current Location: Garden City, KS

Wednesday’s Results: Mobile mesonets (Adam, Andrew, Chris, Justin, Bruce, Kathy) saw 2 brief (brief as in <5 seconds) on the front edge of a line of storms/HP supercell northwest of Canadian, TX. Probes (Tim and Tony) intercepted two tornadoes as they were on the northeast side of same HP supercell, but I/we believe these were different tornadoes as probes’ tornadoes lasted around 2 minutes. Probes were actually trying to sample the hail core, but were unsuccessful and instead saw tornadoes. So, not successful deployment of probes or mesonets today.

Overall, today was somewhat of a bummer considering PDS tornado watch (particularly dangerous situation tornado watch; this signifies that there is a high probability of EF2-EF5 (strong/violent) tornadoes will occur) and helicity/hodographs/profiles looked better than yesterday.

Lastly, went through Greensburg, KS today on our way down into TX panhandle. I have a hard time finding words to write a sentence, but imagine a farmstead with trees around it in the country. Now, snap all the trees in half, rip the leaves off of them, and remove the farmstead. That’s what it was like just south of Greensburg. We definitely agreed it was at least EF4 or EF5 (obviously construction of buildings needs to be considered, but in the town of Greensburg tornado was rated EF5 (highest on EF scale). I will write more about this later, but did want to mention a little about that. Again, please be patient as this is just a brief summary and I think I should try and get at least an hour of sleep.

TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go, all teams return home.
TWISTEX Status for Friday: Uncertain, but likely No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS. After seeing the town/surrounding area firsthand, it brings home the point that they need our prayers.
• Pray for safe travel as TWISTEX members prepare to head home. Also, give thanks that the last few days we have had safe travels.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 23, 2007, 7:05AM
Current Location: Great Bend, KS

Tuesday’s Results: Briefly, no probe deployment yesterday, although I believe mesonet teams intercepted an RFD (rear flank downdraft, explanation will come in later post) from a tornado that briefly touched down around 4 miles SW of Hill City, KS. Tim, Tony, Adam, and myself were trying to get into position to deploy, but roads turned to mud. A truck ahead of us got stuck in a ravine, and we had a fun time getting out.

That’s all for today. A lengthy summary will follow (3-5 pages), but until I have the time to sit down and write coherent sentences, it will have to wait.

TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: Go
TWISTEX Status for Thursday: Likely No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS.
• Pray for safe travel as TWISTEX members prepare to chase today.
• While no one on this Earth knows for certain what will transpire today, pray that God would bless the meteorologists with awareness of dangerous and/or life threatening storms so as to be able to give those in the path plenty of time to seek shelter. Pray for the safety of those that may be affected by any storm, and those who may be required in rescue operations.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 22, 2007, 5:33AM
My Current Location: Ames, IA

Thanks to Kang, my conversation partner, for allowing me to stay at his place last night.

Onto the super brief discussion…

•SPC has issued a slight risk with a 10% tornado probability over west central Kansas.

•GFS 00Z doesn’t appear to break out much precipitation in western Kansas, suggesting cap may be too strong.

•SREF 3Z temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid to upper 80s in western Kansas with 700mb temperatures between 8-9C. This usually suggests that the cap should not be an issue based on 700mb temps. Dewpoints in central/eastern KS will be in the mid 60s; however along dryline they will be near 60, but directly behind dryline they will be in the 30s/40s. This is good. LIs are not as favorable as in previous runs, but still supportive of thunderstorms with plenty of CAPE (>2000J/kg) forecasted. Helicity at 0-1 and 0-3 look still look best after 00Z. Overall, cap is main concern that is mentioned and will be discussed in soundings section.

•WRF simulated radar suggests storms initiating around 22Z/5PM and dying out around 4Z/10PM. I’m not so sure how much I buy into the end time, but 22Z looks alright for when storms will fire. Appears SW KS will be as far as storms will go, and that is consistent with models also as cap remains too strong further south into OK/TX.

•Soundings-NAM 00Z sounding for DDC valid at 7PM shows nice directional shear with speed shear as 20kts at surface to 45kts around 500mb. Still would like to see some more speed shear, but from SPC discussion and BUFKIT model runs yesterday, hodographs have a beautiful curve. CIN (inhibition) is almost gone and this sounding would likely suggest storms would be able to initiate. Further north in GLD, winds are not as backed at surface, although aloft they are much stronger (500mb at 50kts, up near 200mb up towards 75kts).

•Discussions—Cap seems to be the concern of local weather offices in western KS as well as SPC. Shear is ample for the folks down there to mention tornadoes. Models have been favored towards the GFS/UKMET.

Final thoughts…cap is strong, but this will hold convection down allowing for more heating/instability to be created. So cap isn’t a bad thing, unless it doesn’t break.

Monday’s Results: TWISTEX was a No-Go yesterday, although it had been considered. Looks like right decision was made as only a few tornadoes were reported.

TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: Go; ISU, Minnesota, Denver teams are all Go
TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: Possible

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS.
• Pray for safe travel as TWISTEX members prepare to chase today.
• While no one on this Earth knows for certain what will transpire today, pray that God would bless the meteorologists with awareness of dangerous and/or life threatening storms so as to be able to give those in the path plenty of time to seek shelter. Pray for the safety of those that may be affected by any storm, and those who may be required in rescue operations.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

•TWISTEX remains a Go for Tuesday
•Crews from Denver, Minnesota, and ISU are all Go

•A quick update this evening with new NAM and SREF model runs. I really would like to stay up for the GFS/SREF/SPC/WRF data, but not feasible given departure time. However, I am planning on making a super brief update tomorrow morning before departure mentioning SPC discussion, GFS 00Z, SREF 3z (?) and WRF simulated radar.

Biggest concern is will the CAPE break and will there be enough time for storms to mature before they reach more stable air away from the dryline. Near the triple point (intersection of dryline/cold front/trough), there should be plenty of forcing to overcome cap, but with cold front nearby will the storms be able to become supercellular.

Shear has continued to improve, at least looking at NAM for Dodge City (DDC) and to some extent up in Goodland (GLD). DDC has good directional shear and speed shear is approaching 50kts at 500mb. GLD has stronger winds at 500mb, although directional shear at surface isn’t as nice as DDC. GLD will likely be away from best CAPE. 0-1 and 0-3km helicity looks best after 00Z.

Below I have included some photos of this evenings get together with the mobile mesonets. Enjoy the photos!















Mobile Mesonet 2















My current understanding of the "plumber nightmare" of the mobile mesonets.















Why we don't allow Daryl to chase...(maintains the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM; http://www.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu))















Blue Lightning and the mobile mesonets meet and greet time.

Current Date/Time: May 21, 2007, 3:39PM
My Current Location: Ames, IA

Thanks to Jake and his roommates for allowing me to crash at their place last night. While we didn’t head today, being in Ames hasn’t been a bad thing. It’s been nice to be able to discuss forecasting thoughts with others (Chris, Adam, Dr. Gallus). Plus, campus has really greened up the last few weeks and definitely feels like summer.

Local forecast offices are coming out with their afternoon updates and many are hitting on the cap (inhibition to thunderstorms) for tomorrow as well as lack of moisture further north. Dodge City (DDC) mentions “loaded gun type thermal soundings” (vertical view of temperature and dewpoint, with loaded gun meaning favorable for thunderstorms) out in front of dryline. However, DDC does caution that if storms aren’t mature enough, they may not last in stable air that is further east of the dryline. Latest SPC day 2 outlook is promising as there is a mention of “strong tornadoes”. Overall, this has the most promise for producing tornadoes since early May, yet cap is definitely a concern tomorrow. Otherwise, things are looking good for tomorrow, and even speed shear has come around some compared to previous model runs. I may provide a very brief update later this evening after 00Z NAM and perhaps 21z SREF becomes available.

Briefly, another chance of thunderstorms late Saturday into Monday as shortwave trough moves out into the Midwest. Also, appears a warm front will be stretch from NE into IA on Saturday and then extends further east into Ohio River Valley by Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: Go

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS.
• Pray for safe travel as TWISTEX members prepare to chase tomorrow.
• While no one on this Earth knows for certain what will transpire in the next few days, pray that God would bless the meteorologists with awareness of dangerous and/or life threatening storms so as to be able to give those in the path plenty of time to seek shelter. Pray for the safety of those that may be affected by any storm, and those who may be required in rescue operations.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 20, 2007, 2:19PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Not much of a forecast update, other than SPC has mentioned “tornado potential” in their updated day 2 outlook. See below for a more detailed discussion.

Otherwise, I am planning on a 5PM departure for Ames, which should get me in around 7:30. Currently, am recharging batteries for camera, camcorder, ham radio, and cell phone as well as seeing what I packed 2 weeks ago.

It feels weird that I’ll be back in Ames two weeks after I unofficially graduated (still haven’t seen the diploma yet). Biggest difference likely will be –20000 people, but I did enjoy Ames during my summer stay two years ago.

I will try to make daily posts, but cannot make a guarantee.

Saturday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Monday: Possible

Prayer Requests:
• Please continue to pray for the residents affected by the early May tornadoes, including Greensburg, KS.
• Pray for safe travel as TWISTEX members prepare to chase and safe travel during the chase.
• While no one on this Earth knows for certain what will transpire in the next few days, pray that God would bless the meteorologists with awareness of dangerous and/or life threatening storms so as to be able to give those in the path plenty of time to seek shelter. Pray for the safety of those that may be affected by any storm, and those who may be required in rescue operations.
--------
Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

• TWISTEX is a No-Go for Sunday, possible Go for Monday, and likely a Go on Tuesday
• Possible departure either early Monday AM for Monday deployment or Monday afternoon for pre-deployment for Tuesday.
• I will likely depart from Ames sometime late this afternoon/early evening.
• Discussion below is using the 12Z/20 GFS/NAM, 00Z/20 ECMWF, 9Z/20 SREF as well as SPC/HPC. Not sure if there will be another lengthy discussion or not, but typical post with usual format will come out later today/evening.
  

A gorgeous morning here in Storm Lake with just a few puffy cumulus clouds going up as I was out this morning. Unfortunately, gorgeous isn't how I would describe the NAM or the current severe weather setup.

For Monday...Temperatures from SD southward to TX border will be in the low 80's with a patch of mid 80s in central SD. Dewpoints in the low 60s should be okay to fire some thunderstorms, and this is definitely suggested by LIs in central SD breaking -7. This would indicate strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (based off of LI alone). CAPE also is focused over same area as favorable LIs with 2000 to 2500J/kg forecasted. 0-1km helicity leaves something to be desired, yet 0-3km is more favorable for tornadoes with 150-200m2/s2 indicated by 9Z SREF. Overall, ingredients that are being put in are baking more of a multicell event rather than a supercell/tornado event. Obviously, can't rule out a few tornadoes, but at this time it does not appear to be a major outbreak/long lived tornadoes.

Tuesday is sees a boundary set up across northern KS with dryline evident from 2m dewpoints across western KS/OK/TX (dewpoints will be in low to mid 60s). Temperature gradients forms across western KS that is oriented WNW to ESE with mid 70s northeastern KS to low 80s southwestern KS. LIs are impressive again as forecated -7 will be spread across south central KS, western OK, and north central TX. CAPE is focused across OK/TX with 2000J/kg, although 1500J/kg extend up into KS. As the story has been told (and retold) the last few days, speed shear not all that impressive and shows up in the 0-1km helicity with some patchy areas of 100m2/s2 over relatively same regions as favorable CAPE/LI. However, 0-3km helicity is more favorable for tornadoes as upwards of 150m2/s2 to 200m2/s2 are forecasted. Bottom line on Tuesday is that wind shear does not look favorable until later in the evening, which is bad as CAPE values will have decreased. So, with moisture present, will best shear and CAPE come together at the right time? That question remains. Most of the KS forecast offices are worried about flooding and this is warranted as upper level winds are fairly light (500mb 10kts, 200mb 25kts at Goodland and 500/200mb at 10kts in Wichita Tuesday evening).

A brief update early this morning as church is shortly…

• For non-meteorologists: I used lots of terms/acronyms in yesterday’s discussions that you are likely not familiar with. I am aware of that and will be working on a guide that will give a basic understanding to those terms. Meteorology students should not use this for academia as it will not be detailed nor technical.
• TWISTEX status is unknown for tomorrow (No-Go today other than maybe having to commute to Ames)
• Further updates are planned for later in the day. I hopefully will get a chance to look at 00Z/12Z GFS, 12z NAM, 3Z/9Z SREF, and maybe even 12Z ECMWF.

Current Date/Time: May 19, 2007, 11:46PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

See previous discussions below for details.

Friday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 this past May.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

I have one thing to say to the 20/00z NAM...”that don't impress me much.” Not impressive at all. Warm front has disappeared and looks like it will now be a cold front across Dakotas/NE on Monday. Dewpoints are still forecasted to be in the low to mid 60s in a narrow band across eastern SD/SE ND Monday afternoon with around 60 covering much of the Dakotas/western MN back south into NE. CAPE/CIN/LI still favorable for severe weather over this area, which also would include central NE. However, still not seeing speed shear and even directional shear isn't as promising as before. BUFKIT 18z hodographs also showing lower values of helicity compared to previous runs. Bottom line for Monday is that cold fronts are not the best for tornadoes, so a possible setup in NE closer to the surface low is not out of the question.

Tuesday sees moisture streaming northward from the Gulf. Dryline is present over western KS/OK with good dewpoint gradient. CAPE values around 2500J/kg and 0-3km helicity around 150m2/s2. Looks like KS would be a good place to be on Tuesday as of right now.

Long range (May 24-June 4)
Next best shot of thunderstorms appears to be across the South this coming Saturday, then a period of relatively quiet weather as a cutoff low at 500mb forms Thursday/May 31. Cutoff will eventually come out into the Plains by June 1 offering up another round of storms over the first full weekend of June. However, first full week of June reminds me of a familiar pattern from last summer as 588dm heights begin to set up over South central US with Bermuda high extension over the Atlantic. This spells potentially hot weather across the South, but duration and probability are questionable as we are end of the model run.

A final update will be forth coming once I return home with usual format.

•TWISTEX is a No-Go for Sunday with possible operations Monday through Wednesday.
•15z SREF just starting to come in and will view after my marathon of cleaning my room and eating supper. I also will take a look into longer range models to see what they are showing for the rest of May.

• Unofficial TWISTEX GO status for Monday...
  
• Forecast discussion below is a comparison of the 3z/10PM SREF to new 9z/4AM SREF...

9z SREF not showing a lot of change in temperatures. A sliver of dewpoints in the low/mid 60 from Aberdeen (ABR) to Mitchell, SD is smaller than the previous 3z run.

SREF also trended downward with LIs as it doesn't have the wide swath of -6 across SE ND, eastern/central SD. However, -5 from noon to 7PM Monday evening are sufficient for thunderstorms to develop. CAPE is holding strong with a small pocket of 2500J/kg south of (ABR) area by 21z/4PM Monday afternoon.

0-3km helicity not as promising as 3z run, although still sufficient. Supercell/tornado composite are still promising for Monday afternoon.

There has been some talk about NE now as well. I haven't looked too much into this, but definitely is not out of the question. My biggest concern is moisture (dewpoints likely less than 60). I will look at this later in the day after I have some breakfast/lunch and allow my brain to catch up with the data overload...

• Likely will be multiple updates today to forecast.
• No info on current status of TWISTEX
• Forecast discussion below will be updated shortly as 9z SREF is almost in...

SREF 3Z has temperatures over central/eastern SD into eastern ND in the low 80s by Monday afternoon while a pool of low to mid 60 dewpoints spreads over this area. This sort of setup would give dewpoint depressions great than 11, which is not conducive to tornadoes. Caveat, of course, is that the event is still 2 days out, but is something to be cautious about.

Severe weather parameters look good as surface LIs over central/eastern SD suggest thunderstorms are likely and CAPE showing well over 1000J/kg with a small pocket of 2000J/kg in north central SD. SREF still indicating that CIN will be eroding (50J/kg at 1PM, 10J/kg by 4) and there doesn't appear to be a 700mb cap with 6-8C temperatures.

00Z BUFKIT sounding for Aberdeen shows shows nice directional shear, although speed shear is lacking still. At the sfc, winds are around 20kts and at 500mb around 40 kts. The hodograph, although, is nicely curved with helicity above 150m2/s2. Still looks like north central to eastern SD would be the area for activity with southern ND not out of the question.

Looking at incoming 12z NAM this morning...it seems to be a bit faster and places/tracks the low further north than the 00z run. Compared to the 00Z NAM, 12z run doesn't define the warm front as well, but looks like warm front might stretch into SE ND looking at 2m temps.

Current Date/Time: May 18, 2007, 11:28PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

I had planned on going uptown this evening to take a look at BUFKIT soundings on my PC (BUFKIT isn’t compatible with my Mac; a sounding is a vertical profile of temperature, dewpoint and winds), but ended up digging roots up in the backyard. I’ll likely head uptown in early tomorrow morning to look at data.

Onto the data…
New 00Z runs (00z = 7PM) for GFS and NAM differ on the track of the low. GFS takes the low further North and a bit faster than the NAM. Warm front dissolves faster in the GFS and becomes more like a cold front by Tuesday morning across the Dakotas (NE to SW oriented) while NAM holds the warm front over the Dakota’s border through Tuesday. Dewpoints are forecasted in low to mid 60s by late Monday afternoon.

SREF 21Z (ensemble of models; 4PM) is showing between 500-1000J/kg of CAPE (energy) with CIN (inhibition to thunderstorms) being eroding throughout the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings for Ashley, ND (extreme southern and central ND along the SD/ND border) at 18Z (1PM) show winds backed at the surface, then veering with height. While directional shear is apparent, speed shear is lacking as winds at the surface are SE at 25kts and at 500mb are WSW at 30kts.

So, all that discussion, what does it mean? While moisture and speed shear are lacking and some cause for concern, there might actually be a cloud in the sky. That’s an improvement! With a trough (albeit positively tilted) moving into the region with a deepening low and warm front, it does look like there is a decent chance of severe weather. While model diagnosticians suggest a blend of NAM and GFS, and I agree with a blend of models, I would weigh the NAM a bit more. I would likely be looking at North central/Northeastern SD as a target area along the warm front at this time.

Thursday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
As things begin to look more promising next week, pray for safety as TWISTEX members travel.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 17, 2007, 11:10PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Well, as I’ve been writing about the past few days, late this weekend and early next week offer the best chance of TWISTEX activation. While I was more focused down south along possible dryline in KS/OK/TX, warm front in Dakotas/MN will offer chances of storms as well.

18/00Z GFS showing the warm front draped across SD into MN. This is consistent with what the NAM is showing at this time (through Monday morning), although difference in strength of low and placement may be something to watch once all of the NAM is in tomorrow. Hence, I’m leaning more towards GFS model as all of Monday’s data is in and will wait until tomorrow’s NAM/SREF runs to consult further.

At this time, looks like SD will be the best area for chasing, although ND and MN are not out of the question as low moves east and warm front lifts northward. Currently, forecast offices up north are calling for possible heavy rain and/or MCS (line of storms) as main threat.

By Wednesday morning, cold front will have swung through much of the Plains likely ending any chance of severe weather. I haven’t looked out much beyond Monday/Tuesday.

Models aside, only question that remains is transportation to Ames. With gas going up since Sunday, May 6 from $2.89 to $3.29 (+.40), will I take Blue Lighting (car) or will I ride Black Thunder (bike) to Ames? This will require a good night’s sleep…

Wednesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
As things begin to look more promising next week, pray for safety as TWISTEX members travel.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 16, 2007, 12:04PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

The re-run of quiet weather continues…

Outlook for this weekend/early next week…
12z GFS from this morning still painting a possible chance of severe weather Sunday through Wednesday, with best chance likely on Sunday. Low over NE WY with apparent warm front extending through SD back towards IA might bring a chance for some storms. Shortwave at 500mb will be an added bonus as that is featured over northern TX Sunday evening and ejects out into KS Monday morning. Also, a cold front on the front range of the Rockies will be a trigger for some storms as well.

Going into Monday through Wednesday, warm front retreats northward/dissipates and thunderstorms likely will be focused in western NE/KS/TX along cold front (maybe a dryline?). The shortwave continues to move NE into eastern NE by Monday evening, then up towards the Twin Cities by Tuesday morning. Overall, action on Monday and Tuesday will be associated along a cold front.

Right now, I feel like I am trying to will this system to happen, but will be interesting to watch short term models as they start to get into this time frame in about a day.

Tuesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 15, 2007, 9:09PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Thunderstorms rolled through last evening with some lightning and a good downpour, but no fanfare otherwise. Record high yesterday of 91 was followed today by a below average 68.

Another day in May brings another dish of disappointing weather to TWISTEX. Outlook doesn’t look promising, but long range GFS has a shot of thunderstorms coming through next Monday into Tuesday, but appears at this time it will be along a cold front. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms after that can be expected, but confidence isn’t high if that will pan out. Sorry that this blog hasn’t been more exciting, but there simply isn’t anything all that exciting weatherwise (or at least with TWISTEX) to write about.

Monday’s Results: Surprise! None.

TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.
Tim, TWISTEX leader, will be flying back from the Pacific Northwest tomorrow. Pray for a safe return.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 14, 2007, 1:51PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

I went to my local Hallmark store today and picked up a sympathy card for May’s tornado season, which has died and doesn’t look to be returning this year.

Ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern, and looks to do so through the remainder of this week, which just started. Normally, I don’t buy into model fantasyland (forecast after 7 days or so), but the way things have been going recently, I am buying it—all. Through the end of May, we’ll be in a fairly west to east (zonal) flow across the US while the troughs we would like to see over the Midwest will remain in Canada.

Sunday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.
Tim, TWISTEX leader, has a flight for a meeting in the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. Pray for safe travel to and from Denver.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 13, 2007, 10:07PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

It was another busy non-chase day in Northwest Iowa as clear skies continue to prevail with ridge dominating current weather. Chaser sadness syndrome has set in, and seems to be worsen towards perhaps Supercell Deprivation Syndrome (http://texastailchaser.com/SDS)
Chase humor…haha!



















As posted previously, there was some thinking TWISTEX may be a GO for Monday, but that has been scrubbed. Along with timing issues of cold front (<- there’s your problem), which will be moving through the Plains rapidly, weak upper-level winds don’t support a deployment tomorrow. However, if things get dicey around these parts, I may go out and spot. Current thinking is that storms will get here before midnight, with main threat being hail and wind as storms should be multi-cellular (line of thunderstorms). Hmm, I hope I remember what a thunderstorm looks like…

Saturday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.
Tim, TWISTEX leader, has a flight for a meeting in the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. Pray for safe travel to and from Denver.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 12, 2007, 9:00PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Well, nothing to see here. There is some talk about a possible deployment Monday in Kansas/Nebraska, but after looking at latest SREF/NAM/GFS (various weather models), I’m not overly impressed. GFS and NAM differ quite a bit on low track and timing of the front (8+ hours of difference of frontal passage in Lincoln, NE). Best CAPE would be over eastern sections of Nebraska/Kansas, although profiles in those areas don’t show a lot of directional shear and LCLs are forecasted above 3500ft.

In other news, there was a change of scenery from Storm Lake today. A friend from Storm Lake/Iowa State decided we would do a bike ride from Lake View, IA to Carroll, IA. This should have been a 60+ mile adventure, but turned into a 20 mile venture as Dan’s key drive (essential for you to pedal and move your bike) broke about half way through. Even though it was broken, it worked well enough so he could pedal and not have to walk back. As we rode back to Lake View, his engineering schooling paid off as he made a fix with some wire that helped him pedal a little more easily. Pictures below.




























Friday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Sunday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 11, 2007, 11:18PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Ridge persists over the central US continuing to suppress any severe weather development and not requiring TWISTEX deployment. Chances are looking better (anything is better compared to this week) next week as ridge flattens, but the jet stream remains across northern Plain states. This is likely where best chance for severe weather will exist, but possible deployment Monday in NE/KS, but that really doesn’t look great at this time. Latest NAM run shows perhaps a warm front in SD, but haven’t seen that feature in previous runs as well depicted.

Reflective moment:
It’s amazing to recall what was going on a week ago. I was watching radar Friday evening as I tried to pack. I remember showing the parentals the hook as well as the amazing velocity data as the storm passed over Greensburg, KS. I sliced (2D) and volume rendered (3D) the storm not knowing if the town had been hit.

A week later, pictures have emerged of destruction, total loss—a town essentially gone. Just a week ago, a town unknown to the world was standing with families and friends together. A week later, a town knowingly gone with 10 lives lost. One week. A simple reminder of how short life is and how we’re not promised tomorrow.

Thursday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Saturday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 10, 2007, 11:23PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Another fantastic day across Northwest Iowa with sunny skies and a few afternoon fair weather cumulus. A severe thunderstorm formed over southeastern SD, but only 3/4” hail was reported and could be seen quickly dying off in the western sky from Storm Lake as the sun set. Rain south of Iowa today were garden-variety thunderstorms with main focus of severe weather out in Idaho/Montana and also in the New England states.

Writing these updates has become progressively easier…ridge building out to the west with no severe weather chances likely in the next week. No results. I think, to spice things up, I’m going to post a classified as follows:

“Storm chaser seeking a tornado. Prefer EF2+ forming on a good road network, but causing no damage to property or loss of life. Willing to meet anywhere in Midwest with preference on dryline or warm front. Contact Storm Prediction Center (SPC) with moderate or high risk.”

Wednesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 9, 2007, 10:29PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Another outstanding day here in Storm Lake…minus the fact that I’d rather be out on TWISTEX. Still, a fantastic day as temperatures reached into the low 80s, light winds, no bugs…perfect!

The not so perfect ridge pattern that no one wants to see is beginning to set up out West suppressing any severe weather for the remainder of this week. A slight chance remains up in SD for a line of storms to develop Friday evening, but that would not likely warrant a TWISTEX deployment, but may satisfy my thirst for severe weather. In any regard, chances really look grim until perhaps middle of next week when Dr. Gallus is out of the state. This should increase our chances…that and the ridge begins to break down by next week. Some nice shortwaves in the flow may provide chances for severe weather, but will have to wait for further model runs/model consistency.

Tuesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
• Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
• Even though we may not be on the road, continue to pray for safety of TWISTEX members.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

Current Date/Time: May 8, 2007, 11:21PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Well, still in Storm Lake as the weather has figured out TWISTEX is ready. Hopefully, not the northwest flow the team experienced last year, but right now a ridge is expected to build out to the west over the Rockies in the coming days. This will hamper severe weather chances for what appears to be the duration of this week. Right now, don’t anticipate a change of scenery until at the earliest Friday, but Blue Lighting (car) and I are ready to go at any time.

Monday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: NO-GO
TWISTEX Status for Wednesday: NO-GO

Prayer Requests:
o Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

A few notes before the first update…

• The name for this project is TWISTEX (Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in/near Tornadoes EXperiment).

• Each update will have the same format so hopefully it is more user-friendly for you to read.

•Current Time
•Current Location
•Yesterday’s Results (or Today’s results depending on when update is written; also pictures, if any)
•TWISTEX Status (while I’ll post whether we’re a GO or NO-GO, location will be disclosed until post-event.)
•Prayer Requests

If you have a suggestion or want to see something else included, please let me know.


Current Date/Time: May 7, 2007 1:31PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA
Team has been told to stand down for time being as risk of severe weather does not warrant deployment. While I’d like to be on the road chasing, I doubled my sleeping time to 10 hours last night and have family in town.

Yesterday’s Results: Yesterday’s results will cover more than just yesterday as graduation this past weekend allowed for no updates. Sorry.

Friday: Tim along with some ISU crew (Adam Clark, Chris Conoan, Mark Loeffelbein, and Sara Schmidt?) were on a supercell in Osborne, KS that produced no tornadoes, only broad low level rotation.

Saturday: Same crew locked on to storms near Pratt, KS and Great Bend, KS, but no deployments were made due to heavy rain along with closed roads around the Greensburg, KS area, which was hit by a tornado Friday evening.

Sunday: Same crew went down in the Childress, TX area on an outflow/dryline intersection storm that was HP (high precipitation). However, no tornadoes were produced.

TWISTEX Status for Monday: NO-GO
TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: NO-GO

Prayer Requests:
•Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF F5 Friday evening
•Safety for Tim and crew as they return to Colorado
•Safety as ISU team goes up to and comes back from Grand Rapids, MN to get mobile mesonet instruments mounted

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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.

For those who find this through other facets (ie Facebook, webpage, other email), below is an email that was sent out concerning the Early Summer Endeavour regarding storm chasing.
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Family, friends, Iowa State faculty, fellow students, Brothers and Sisters in Christ:

Some of you have heard that I will be going storm chasing during the month of May with researcher Tim Samaras. This is an exciting and likely a once in a lifetime opportunity after I graduate from Iowa State University to go storm chasing across the Midwest for around a month. While this opportunity is somewhat exclusive to a few students from Iowa State, I feel the experience and the outcomes should not. Thus, I have created a blog (simply an online journal) to keep you updated on the chasing adventures during the month of May. After May, it will just be what's going on in Andrew's life type of blog.

What will Tim and the rest of the team be doing while storm chasing, Andrew?
Great question, astute reader! Tim's mission is to place probes in the path of tornadoes to measure winds at the lowest levels—something that has not been done a lot previously. For those who are unaware of how Tim does this, a crude idea would be the movie Twister and how they tried to place Dorothy in the path of the tornado. That is mostly Tim's job. My job, along with other Iowa State students, is to drive what are called mobile mesonets. My dad calls these a plumber's worst nightmare on wheels, but essentially they are weather instruments mounted on top of a car. Our job is to position ourselves near the tornado (~1 mile or so) to measure environmental conditions.

How often will the blog be updated and will there be pictures/video?
While I'm storm chasing, I will try to update the blog on a daily basis about the previous day's events; however, it will depend on the availability of Internet and if I have time and/or energy to update the blog. After storm chasing is over near the end of May, I will continue to update the blog every few days on what's going on in life.

Due to National Geographic having first right to video and photos, some of the more exciting images I will not be able to post until after National Geographic has aired their documentary.

This sounds interesting. Where is the blog located?
Currently, there is not a lot of information up, but once chasing starts hopefully in a week, the blog will become more active.
http://ajsorge.blogspot.com

What if I have a question about storm chasing or something posted in the blog?
Feel free to email me or post a comment on my blog. I will try to respond in a day or two, but please be patient too.

This is something (insert name) would be interested in. Can I forward this email to them?
Yes, most certainly. Forward freely!

If you have any questions about this email, the blog, or need to contact me, please don't hesitate to email me (ajsorge@gmail.com)

Best Regards,
Andrew

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