Current Date/Time: May 17, 2007, 11:10PM
My Current Location: Storm Lake, IA

Well, as I’ve been writing about the past few days, late this weekend and early next week offer the best chance of TWISTEX activation. While I was more focused down south along possible dryline in KS/OK/TX, warm front in Dakotas/MN will offer chances of storms as well.

18/00Z GFS showing the warm front draped across SD into MN. This is consistent with what the NAM is showing at this time (through Monday morning), although difference in strength of low and placement may be something to watch once all of the NAM is in tomorrow. Hence, I’m leaning more towards GFS model as all of Monday’s data is in and will wait until tomorrow’s NAM/SREF runs to consult further.

At this time, looks like SD will be the best area for chasing, although ND and MN are not out of the question as low moves east and warm front lifts northward. Currently, forecast offices up north are calling for possible heavy rain and/or MCS (line of storms) as main threat.

By Wednesday morning, cold front will have swung through much of the Plains likely ending any chance of severe weather. I haven’t looked out much beyond Monday/Tuesday.

Models aside, only question that remains is transportation to Ames. With gas going up since Sunday, May 6 from $2.89 to $3.29 (+.40), will I take Blue Lighting (car) or will I ride Black Thunder (bike) to Ames? This will require a good night’s sleep…

Wednesday’s Results: None

TWISTEX Status for Thursday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go

Prayer Requests:
Continue to pray for Greensburg, KS residents as they deal with loss of life and property from the EF5 Friday evening.
As things begin to look more promising next week, pray for safety as TWISTEX members travel.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.