• Likely will be multiple updates today to forecast.
• No info on current status of TWISTEX
• Forecast discussion below will be updated shortly as 9z SREF is almost in...

SREF 3Z has temperatures over central/eastern SD into eastern ND in the low 80s by Monday afternoon while a pool of low to mid 60 dewpoints spreads over this area. This sort of setup would give dewpoint depressions great than 11, which is not conducive to tornadoes. Caveat, of course, is that the event is still 2 days out, but is something to be cautious about.

Severe weather parameters look good as surface LIs over central/eastern SD suggest thunderstorms are likely and CAPE showing well over 1000J/kg with a small pocket of 2000J/kg in north central SD. SREF still indicating that CIN will be eroding (50J/kg at 1PM, 10J/kg by 4) and there doesn't appear to be a 700mb cap with 6-8C temperatures.

00Z BUFKIT sounding for Aberdeen shows shows nice directional shear, although speed shear is lacking still. At the sfc, winds are around 20kts and at 500mb around 40 kts. The hodograph, although, is nicely curved with helicity above 150m2/s2. Still looks like north central to eastern SD would be the area for activity with southern ND not out of the question.

Looking at incoming 12z NAM this morning...it seems to be a bit faster and places/tracks the low further north than the 00z run. Compared to the 00Z NAM, 12z run doesn't define the warm front as well, but looks like warm front might stretch into SE ND looking at 2m temps.