I need a 9 letter word for pain...nor'easter!

I've been sudo-off the last few days, but have been made aware of a potential disturbance this weekend for the big 3 (Boston, New York and Washington). 

I have just looked at the 27/0z GFS and the zone of low pressure will cross the Delmarva peninsula and be off the New Jersey coast by 12z/8AM Monday. This position is similar to the 26/12z CMC, but the CMC is about 12 hours faster. The ECMWF differs from both of these as the trough is not dug as far south as the GFS/CMC, which leads to a surface low crossing the western Great Lakes Sunday night (GFS forms a secondary low over the Great Lakes as the system occludes). If the GFS/CMC are the "correct" solution, the folks who live here say a track over Philadelphia means big snow in State College. However, will it be snow? 

At least for the big 3, it would seem it would be rain at this time. It appears (at least with the latest run of GFS/12z CMC) that the boundary layer (lowest ~1000ft) may be too warm as the low tracks too close to the cities and cold air is not currently in place over the coastal locations. 

In State College, we would end up with rain, then maybe some snow as colder air arrives. If this were the case, snowfall would be minimized, as depicted in the image below. If it were all snow, we could see a healthy amount. Obviously with the storm a few days out, there is lots of room to roam. Needless to say, a tricky forecasting situation the next 4-5 days.

0z GFS UNV precipitation type and amount forecast. Time goes from latest on right to next Wednesday on left. 

On the Edge

It turned out to be a beautiful fall day in State College and it wasn't totally expected. A low pressure system off the Middle Atlantic Coast was expected to keep clouds around east of the Appalachians, which includes State College. However, the satellite image from this afternoon shows that we just west of the cloud shield. This was likely due to sinking air. To create clouds, air has to rise and cool to saturation. All that rising air has to sink someplace, and we turned out to be in that "sink zone". Needless to say, forecasts for Boston and New York from the last few days have been difficult. I have learned a few things from these last two East Coast storms and hopefully will aid in the future. However, this forecast, like early last weeks that brought snow to the Poconos and Catskills, is not turning out well. Boston, though, appears to be a little bit more along the lines of what I had envisioned. I'll have to check when I return to work to see how it all verified.

As for today, it was a wonderful day off and I raked leaves in under mostly sunny skies and a temperature of 65 degrees. Then I came inside and sipped some hot apple cider. Delightful!