What a marvelous Friday. I've been on a weird work schedule, so had a rare Friday off today. Temperatures beat my expectations, likely due to the fact that the clouds broke around noon. State College made it well into the 60s.

While I ran some errands in the morning, I came back home and worked on learning a new weather program. Unfortunately, the learning curve is steep and while I am able to get data displayed, I still know very little about the program. Anyway, I decided that I could do this at another time and went outside and read for over an hour. It was great to soak up the sunshine and mild weather. In fact, it is still 61 degrees at 10:30EST.

It's been a while since I posted too. Blue Lightning, my car, went dead in mid-February. While it seemed like a starter issue, it ended up being a dead battery. The battery served beyond its like expectancy.

The above is a picture of the snowfall from Sunday night through Monday that brought snow from the Ozarks, Tennessee Valley, northern Georgia, Piedmont and the I95 corridor. Anyway, on the high res image (not this one, this is 1km resolution, the high res is 250m) you can see State College via the Bryce Jordan Center's white dome (basketball stadium for Penn State). Also, interesting to see the snow on the Delmarva peninsula. This article features one of the gentlemen I work with and also some data that he (and a little of me) sent them. Biggest Snowstorm of the WInter Sweeps Across the Northeast

I also was in The Times for an unusually balmy day. A cold front got hung up north of the city, which ended up causing my forecast of 43 to be 9 degrees too cool. Unusually Balmy Day Surprises Everyone, Especially Forecasters

That is all for now.

Snow (in State College)

Pennsylvania weather (above) late this evening (a band of snow (not related with the main storm tomorrow) over the eastern part of the state. Winter storm warnings (pink) and winter weather advisory (purplish) in effect early Friday to early Saturday.

It appears that within roughly 24 hours a blanket of 6 to 8 inches of snow will fall over State College. The 21z SREF does bring some concerns though. It has the rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow line further north over previous runs today. Compared to previous runs, it also lifts the snow out of the area whereas previous runs have had a longer length snow event. Also, the 12-hour snow probabilities has shifted the best probabilities north of I-80 (instead of previous 7 runs (3z/8 to 15z/9) around or just south of I-80). 50% probability of 4"+/12 hours are now northern Pennsylvania instead over the I-80 corridor.

As for the models, the 0z WRF would give us 7.6" of snow (with some ice pellets/freezing drizzle toward the end if the model is correct) and the GFS would give us 8.2". WRF has the low tracking near the PA/MD border, which is in line with the SREF. It appears, and rightly so given the trend of the heaviest precipitation being further north, that the band of snow will move into northern PA and then eventually reach the rest of the state as the low approaches and passes. The GFS is further north with the low's track.

I haven't looked at any soundings, but based on the 540 thickness (a rule of thumb meteorologists use to determine where the rain/snow line will be, although with any rule there are exceptions) it further north in the GFS compared to the WRF. That makes sense with the low track, but the BUFKIT text output indicates all snow in the GFS (granted the temporal intervals are not equal between the two models).

So, unless The State College Bubble Effect works it's magic or we mix, I think 6 to 8 inches looks good. Time for bed so I can watch the snow fall from our new office. Pictures to follow in a future post.

I need a 9 letter word for pain...nor'easter!

I've been sudo-off the last few days, but have been made aware of a potential disturbance this weekend for the big 3 (Boston, New York and Washington). 

I have just looked at the 27/0z GFS and the zone of low pressure will cross the Delmarva peninsula and be off the New Jersey coast by 12z/8AM Monday. This position is similar to the 26/12z CMC, but the CMC is about 12 hours faster. The ECMWF differs from both of these as the trough is not dug as far south as the GFS/CMC, which leads to a surface low crossing the western Great Lakes Sunday night (GFS forms a secondary low over the Great Lakes as the system occludes). If the GFS/CMC are the "correct" solution, the folks who live here say a track over Philadelphia means big snow in State College. However, will it be snow? 

At least for the big 3, it would seem it would be rain at this time. It appears (at least with the latest run of GFS/12z CMC) that the boundary layer (lowest ~1000ft) may be too warm as the low tracks too close to the cities and cold air is not currently in place over the coastal locations. 

In State College, we would end up with rain, then maybe some snow as colder air arrives. If this were the case, snowfall would be minimized, as depicted in the image below. If it were all snow, we could see a healthy amount. Obviously with the storm a few days out, there is lots of room to roam. Needless to say, a tricky forecasting situation the next 4-5 days.

0z GFS UNV precipitation type and amount forecast. Time goes from latest on right to next Wednesday on left. 

On the Edge

It turned out to be a beautiful fall day in State College and it wasn't totally expected. A low pressure system off the Middle Atlantic Coast was expected to keep clouds around east of the Appalachians, which includes State College. However, the satellite image from this afternoon shows that we just west of the cloud shield. This was likely due to sinking air. To create clouds, air has to rise and cool to saturation. All that rising air has to sink someplace, and we turned out to be in that "sink zone". Needless to say, forecasts for Boston and New York from the last few days have been difficult. I have learned a few things from these last two East Coast storms and hopefully will aid in the future. However, this forecast, like early last weeks that brought snow to the Poconos and Catskills, is not turning out well. Boston, though, appears to be a little bit more along the lines of what I had envisioned. I'll have to check when I return to work to see how it all verified.

As for today, it was a wonderful day off and I raked leaves in under mostly sunny skies and a temperature of 65 degrees. Then I came inside and sipped some hot apple cider. Delightful!

Video: Snow Squall

The snow squall moved through! It has been over 12 hours now since it has passed and it was very exciting. Overall, quite a weather day in the valley.

The heaviest band came through shortly after 10 this morning and was over in about 10 to 15 minutes. During the this time, I was outside enjoying the snow and amazed at the rate it was falling. It started to turn grassy surfaces white and if this would have kept up for a few hours, we would have had some healthy snow accumulations (if the ground was also cool enough too so the snow would stick around awhile). Anyway, the snow was mixed with graupel/ice pellets at first and with a stiff north wind, the precipitation stung. It eventually changed over to all snow. I got some video and those links are below as well as the NWS State College Special Weather Statement on this band of snow

After the band moved through, I headed back to my home. I then decided to take a time lapse of the snow coming down, albeit not as great of a rate of snowfall as earlier, but still falling (in October!). That was fun just standing there watching the snow fall. There were several other little squalls that moved through State College through the afternoon. Around 4:15PM, we had a graupel storm that lasted about 5 minutes. It came down at a decent rate, but melted within a short time of coming in contact with the ground.

Otherwise, looks to be a fairly quiet week in PA as high pressure builds in from the central Plains tomorrow. A weak cold front may pass through on Saturday, but then Canadian high pressure returns for the start of next week. Overall, looks fairly dry.

Scenes from around State College (at peak snow rate)

Time lapse of snow falling (not at peak snow rate)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

929 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

PAZ017>019-027-291500-

CLEARFIELD PA-MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-

929 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CENTRE...NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN

AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CLEARFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM EDT...

AT 918 AM EDT...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WITH

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WAS LOCATED

ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR DUBOIS AND CLEARFIELD...TO WALLACETON...

BELLEFONTE AND MILLHEIM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS TO 30

ARE LIKELY WITH THIS DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL.

THIS DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL BE NEAR WOODLAND AROUND 940 AM...

GRAMPIAN AROUND 1010 AM...PHILIPSBURG AROUND 1020 AM...POTTERS MILLS

AROUND 1030 AM...STATE COLLEGE AROUND 1040 AM AND SEVEN MOUNTAINS

AROUND 1050 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...

I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 167...I-99 NEAR MILE MARKER 65.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 119...ROUTE

219...ROUTE 220...ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 26...

STATE ROAD 45...STATE ROAD 153...STATE ROAD 255...STATE ROAD 350.

USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL INTO OR THROUGH THIS

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL. CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL UNTIL THE

SQUALL PASSES YOUR LOCATION.

$$

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

Snow Squall

A band of snow is approaching State College as I type this at 950AM this morning. The NWS has issued a special weather statement saying this is a "dangerous snow squall," basically for the fact that it will likely drop visibility to near 0 miles and drop perhaps a quick inch of snow. Also, being the first snowfall may cause a few accidents, despite relatively warm surface temperatures. I hope to get some video shortly and post it online.

See post above for video.

Dallas: Patchy frost, high 80.

Nothing like patchy frost and 80 degrees in Dallas on Saturday!

A Fine Friday

A rare Friday off from work. Despite the morning and midday cloudiness and a cold front that has moved through the state delivering cool conditions, it's turned out to be a fine day. I really enjoy having Fridays off, especially when they are productive. The sun also came this afternoon and it should turnout to be a wonderful sunset.

Catching up...

Long time, no posts. I'm sure there are posts I could have made, but just didn't take the time to. So a brief recap...

At the end of June, I went on a day trip around some of the state parks of Pennsylvania. Ravensburg, Little Pine, and Hyner View were the three locations I visited/hiked. Ravensburg and Hyner View were the most picturesque, although Hyner View, which sits above the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, would have been the most beautiful if a front hadn't sent more stratocirrus at sunset. Still was a wonderful way to end the day.

July came and was a half month for me. Central PA's 4th Fest fireworks were a bit overhyped in my opinion, but I heard that they weren't as good as other years. It was still an impressive show though. 

Around mid-July, I released several scripts to automate processes for work. They make things quite a bit easier and while it was frustrating at times, they have worked well. September 1, I declared them fully operational as no major problems had occurred since the release, just a few small bugs that were easily fixed.

Mid-July brought the start of the "Taking Back Iowa 2008 Tour". In other words, my vacation. This was my first time back home since starting my position at Penn State. It was great to see family and friends, especially through Chris Karsten's wedding. A lot of those folks I would have not seen down in the Ames area. It was also pleasant to be away from work, and literally have my first Saturday's off since the beginning of December. 

August has flown by as it is now September. August was a fairly quiet month, although I did do some more hiking. I hiked Mount Nittany. A 600 foot climb to the top. Boy was I tired after I did that, but once on top of the mountain it fairly level. There were some scenic outlooks, but nothing spectacular like I had thought. Being that it was midweek, I ran into no one else except when I hiked up and down the mountain. 

I also spent another day last week going around to a few state parks. Whipple Dam State Park, Lake Perez, and Jo Hays Vista were 3 stops. Whipple Dam, while just under 20 miles from State College, felt like you were far away from the city. A beach and a fairly sizable lake were there for all to enjoy. I did a little hiking, probably around 2 miles.

Lake Perez, which is part of Penn State, is currently closed due to repairs that have been completed on the dam at that lake. It was nice to go and see the park while fairly few people were around, but hopefully the lake will get back up to its orginal level and I'll take in a bit more.

Jo Hays Vista, which overlooks State College, is a beautiful location to see the "Happy Valley" and Bald Eagle Ridge. 

Outside of those hikes, the only other news is that State College has once again become a bustling metropolis as the students returned for fall semester. 

September has started. Yesterday, I went for about a 15 mile bike ride around State College. It was definitely a hot day (high: 89) and was quite tired afterward, but it was a pleasant ride all in all.

Tomorrow, I'm back in the saddle at work. It should be fairly interesting to see how Boston's weather pans out with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna. In State College, latest WRF has most of the precipitation just to our east, although we could use a good soaking as August was relatively dry.

The State College Bubble Effect

2008 June 16 Severe Weather Summary from WFO State College

The picture says it all...severe weather does not happen in State College. We are literally in the proverbial polygon doughnut hole (center of image; black dot is approximate location of the city). In all fairness, we were in a severe thunderstorm warning 20080426, but its a rare species here in Happy Valley. Perhaps some research on the State College Bubble Effect is needed...