Deju Vu x3? Update

Evening Update

Yes, I know it's after midnight so it's technically not evening. Anyway, thunder and lightning (big deal here in State College) occurred this evening between 8:00 and 8:30. The power even flickered on and off once (glad I have a UPS) and there was at least one lightning strike that was fairly close! Okay, yes, pathetic by Midwest standards, but just incredible for Pennsylvania.

Here are a few screen grabs from this evening (with storm tracks!)
Cell near State College that brought a couple of heavy downpours to my roof and some "decent" thunder and lightning.

Tornado warning in upstate New York heading toward Utica. A trained spotter viewed a wall cloud and a funnel lowering near Sylvan Beach; however, at this time it is not included in SPC's storm reports. Velocity data didn't look overly impressive so perhaps a gustnado/sheriffnado/landspout or a funnel that never reached the ground.

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I'm currently at work and just sent the NY City Early and IHT pages off...boy that sounds familiar (last Saturday). However, it is true. The sun this day, though, has been only been out for a little bit compared to last week, so instability will be low to nil. Hence, "See Text" outlook with 5% hail and wind threats. Grams (ISU M.S. 2005) did today's outlook. I believe this is his 2nd time soloing the outlook, and I'm glad it involves PA! Just wished he could have worked in some rotating storms...

17z mesoanalysis shows no CAPE of any type in Pennsylvania. The closest, and weak at 250-500J/kg, is located in southern Ontario on the north side of Lake Erie and in eastern Michigan. Hope for more sunshine seems dim as latest satellite image shows a rather extensive patch of clouds, with some breaks, that will likely be over us the rest of the day. So unlikely we'll see much in the way of instability here.

12z PIT sounding has winds at the surface out of the southwest, and then from 900mb-100mb west or west-northwest winds. In other words, linear flow means no rotating storms, although with cold air aloft, places that do see sun and get some instability will have a chance at some strong winds as winds mix down.

While there is a "risk" of severe weather today, I didn't even contemplate a chase, although I did bring my charged camera to work in case something worthwhile did go, I could at least get some pictures from work.