Thursday, May 29, 2008

May 29, 2008 High Risk - Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa

The high risk has been downgraded to a moderate risk this evening. While the potential for tornadoes and hail still exist, the primary threat will be damaging wind in extreme eastern Nebraska, many parts of Iowa, northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

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A High Risk of severe weather is expected across portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa including (but not limited to) the cities of...Storm Lake...Milford...Spirit Lake...Estherville...Omaha...Lincoln...Sioux City. The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and potentially long-tracked tornadoes exists for Thursday, May 29. The above image highlights those areas...red indicates a 30% chance of tornadoes, blue, 15%, brown 10%, light brown 5% and green 2%.

I'll be monitoring the situation from Pennsylvania and provide updates as is warranted.

Last night's discussion...
As [Jayson] Prentice noted [on ISU forums], and WRF/AVN cloud products/MOS station plots indicate, could be quite a bit of cloud cover over Iowa and even eastern NE. It will be interesting to see how well things recover in temperatures and dewpoints department after tonight's convection.

WRF/GFS say Td's will recover to near 70 in parts of SE NE...I find that hard to believe considering they are in the low/mid-50s, but I know that there will be good low-level jet tonight.

Anyway, Norfolk-Randloph-Neligh triangle would be fine I think. The flow looks southerly here, but could be locally backed. South of I80, I think it will be more SWerly (as WRF depicts (GFS is sourtherly)).

This triangle target is northeast of the CAPE max on a gradient and also on a CIN gradient (WRF at 18Z has CIN ~100/GFS is 150ish). Where the WRF/GFS places the CAPE, 700mb temps are around 12C...which is on the fence for breaking/not breaking the cap.

GFS pops convection west of there (triangle target) around 21z...WRF is hard to figure out what's going on, but it appears like the WRF kicks something up around 21z as well because of differential heating boundary from tonight's storms/tomorrow's clouds...then bounces back to better forcing near front/dryline.


Saturday, May 17, 2008

Deju Vu x3? Update

Evening Update

Yes, I know it's after midnight so it's technically not evening. Anyway, thunder and lightning (big deal here in State College) occurred this evening between 8:00 and 8:30. The power even flickered on and off once (glad I have a UPS) and there was at least one lightning strike that was fairly close! Okay, yes, pathetic by Midwest standards, but just incredible for Pennsylvania.

Here are a few screen grabs from this evening (with storm tracks!)
Cell near State College that brought a couple of heavy downpours to my roof and some "decent" thunder and lightning.

Tornado warning in upstate New York heading toward Utica. A trained spotter viewed a wall cloud and a funnel lowering near Sylvan Beach; however, at this time it is not included in SPC's storm reports. Velocity data didn't look overly impressive so perhaps a gustnado/sheriffnado/landspout or a funnel that never reached the ground.

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I'm currently at work and just sent the NY City Early and IHT pages off...boy that sounds familiar (last Saturday). However, it is true. The sun this day, though, has been only been out for a little bit compared to last week, so instability will be low to nil. Hence, "See Text" outlook with 5% hail and wind threats. Grams (ISU M.S. 2005) did today's outlook. I believe this is his 2nd time soloing the outlook, and I'm glad it involves PA! Just wished he could have worked in some rotating storms...

17z mesoanalysis shows no CAPE of any type in Pennsylvania. The closest, and weak at 250-500J/kg, is located in southern Ontario on the north side of Lake Erie and in eastern Michigan. Hope for more sunshine seems dim as latest satellite image shows a rather extensive patch of clouds, with some breaks, that will likely be over us the rest of the day. So unlikely we'll see much in the way of instability here.

12z PIT sounding has winds at the surface out of the southwest, and then from 900mb-100mb west or west-northwest winds. In other words, linear flow means no rotating storms, although with cold air aloft, places that do see sun and get some instability will have a chance at some strong winds as winds mix down.

While there is a "risk" of severe weather today, I didn't even contemplate a chase, although I did bring my charged camera to work in case something worthwhile did go, I could at least get some pictures from work.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Deju Vu x3?


Once again, and for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, Pennsylvania may have a rare glimpse with severe weather on yet another Saturday (April 26, May 10, and perhaps May 17?) Since I work tomorrow, I won't entertain the idea of chasing and it doesn't look like an outstanding event to chase. Perhaps I'll charge the gear up and take some pictures late in the day.

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Possible Chase Update

I ended up staying in State College.

The SPC 20Z update didn't change from previous versions. While there was some instability and that's where some of the stronger storms developed, nothing could really become surface based. Thus, storms were fairly linear in nature. I didn't leave work until around 7 (could have been out by 6 if I wanted) as I finished up some webpage enhancements for work.

Possible Chase Today


I'm currently at work and just sent the NY City Early and IHT pages off, but I've been watching the sun start to come out here in State College since around noon/1PM local time. Thus, some instability is developing over the area. 18z SPC mesoanaylsis has 250J/kg of CAPE to the west of Centre county and line of storms is currently approaching State College from Cambria and Clearfield counties. SPC has this area (of State College) and west of here in 2% tornado...not great, but for PA that's like a moderate risk.

Earlier I thought I may get off by around 4, but I'm now closing for the day which means I'll be here until 6ish. It's probably a good thing so that I don't chase on a less than exceptional day...gas is 3.59 (was 3.65 a few days ago). Behind the initial line of storms appears to be a secondary line trying to get its act together. I'll put more money on small hail and some baseline severe wind damage.

Will await 4PM SPC update...

Sunday, April 20, 2008

VEISHEA webcam images

Here are some webcam shots from VEISHEA 2008. I had to work, but I streamed the parade while I did various tasks for The Times. And you all thought I actually worked...

The early part of the parade with a firetruck (center) and a space shuttle float (left). Check out that snow too!!!

The good ol' VEISHEA balloon.

Another firetruck from the webcam ontop of Agronomy Hall. Good job Daryl.

Another balloon float.
Firetruck in center of the screen is the same one on the previous image from Agronomy!


Saturday, April 12, 2008

Happy VEISHEA!

Good Saturday morning to everybody. It's shortly after 8AM EDT and it's VEISHEA back at Iowa State University. A glorious morning with a current temperature (7AM) of 32 degrees F, with light snow! Very exciting. Here are several webcams to check out the action.

West Lawn looking south from Parks Library
Iowa State Memorial Union Fountain
IEM Campus Shot

A little bit later today (Saturday, the 13th only) Daryl's automated scripts will place a movie online from the IEM camera. Go to Daily Movies, then select Ames from the "camera", then lapse is "sunrise" to watch the snow accumulate?

Just in case you aren't up early enough, here are some images.






Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, it is a beautiful 52 degrees and sunny, with an expected high near 60. Don't worry though, the cold front will come through and make it cooler in the mid-40s the next couple of days before roaring back into the middle 60s by the midweek.

Time for work though.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Remembering Gary

The last week has been challenging and sad. Gary Shore, Chief Meteorologist of KCAU-TV Channel 9 in Sioux City, IA died last Monday from a heart attack.

It's hard to believe that a little less than two years ago Gary gave me the opportunity of a lifetime. I remember talking to him on the phone as we were setting things up for the summer internship. Gary said, “You can come in 5 days a week [to intern].” I was shocked at such a generous offer. So shocked that it must have sounded to Gary that I didn't want to intern that much and he replied, “Well, you can come in 3 or 4 days, whatever works for you.” Needless to say, things fell into place during finals week for a place to live over the summer in Sioux City. I spent the next 12 weeks as part of the weather team, albeit “the intern”, and I felt like I became part of the KCAU family.

The summer wasn't overly active for severe weather. In fact, it was one of the warmest and driest on record. (3rd driest May, 2nd driest July, 4 days of 100 or above). However, Gary taught me a lot about weather forecasting. I kept a log of my time there as well as a record of our forecasts (we had an informal weather forecasting contest). It was amazing how Gary would go out in his extended and forecast 100+ temperatures and darn if they wouldn't verify or be within a few degrees of what actually occurred. I was always gun-shy to pull the trigger, but after Gary shared with me what he was seeing (pattern recognition) and I started observing the same feature, I began calling for 100+ temperatures (not as often though). As I make forecasts today, I use some of the same websites and techniques Gary showed me during my time interning under him. I even have my forecasting sheets from that summer, which I found in a box about 2 weeks ago while cleaning.

While my internship ended, Gary and I had stayed in contact. He was always willing to lend advice whether on a resume tape or on a job offer or chat about the current weather. Gary played a large role (along with my uber-Adobe skills) in getting me to the top of the list at my current job here at Penn State. When I emailed Gary that I was applying for the position at PSU, he replied that folks might remember him (since he did his master's work at PSU). His roommate when he was at PSU, Paul, is now my manager. Small world. An hour later, Gary sends me an email saying that he placed a phone call to Paul highly recommending me for the position. Late last week, Paul reminisced and shared some stories of their time together.

This brings me to my last point. In all the sadness and sorrow of Gary's death, I am in awe of God. Why? It's hard to put into words, but to think that Gary and I only knew each other for around two years. Two years are lives crossed paths. If Gary had never come to Siouxland, I would have never had the opportunity to intern with him, never would have been able to have him as a reference, and I would not hold the position I hold today at Penn State. You take out any piece of that complex puzzle and I'm certain I would not be where I am at today in forecasting ability and my current job. When I was offered and accepted the internship, I viewed it as an internship that only last 12 weeks, but God saw so much more. He saw what I could not see. That interning with Gary would ultimately place me in Pennsylvania, a place where Gary started, and a place God wanted me to be. Thinking about how little I saw into the future then in 2006, makes me all the more certain that God's plan for the future is great...and just the thought makes me smile.

If nothing else, Gary's sudden death is a reminder that none of us are promised tomorrow. From dust you were formed and to dust you shall return. (Gen. 3:19)

To me, Gary was a well-educated meteorologist, a teacher, a mentor, and most of all, a Christian friend.

Thanks Gary for sharing your passion and knowledge with me.

Gary Shore Remembered
Memories of Gary

Note: More on Gary will be coming in the future exclusively to this blog.

Gary Shore (right) and me on my last day of interning in August 2006.

Friday, February 22, 2008

I should be sleeping...

It has been snowing here for about the last two hours (since 10:30 PA time and when I took my trash out around midnight, we had at least a half inch on the ground. UNV is reporting snow falling at moderate intensity (SN), so we may reach an inch by 1am. Considering how dry we were earlier this evening (25/0 around 6pm to 21/18 around midnight), we have moistened up nicely over the last few hours. In the image below, the deep purples are Winter Weather Advisories, pinks are Winter Storm Warnings, and light blue is Snow Advisory.

Hopefully there's a late start! (not that it affects my schedule in any way)
Watch the snow fall LIVE!

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Winter Begins (at least in State College)

Finally, some winter out here. It's currently 5 above zero and by far the coldest night here in State College. A few nice snow squalls passed through today accompanied by active breezes and a gust to 54 mph. This, as you might guess, created blizzard conditions as these squalls passed through the area. Here are a few webcam images from around 1pm Sunday. You are looking towards the IST building and the Walker Building (none of which are all that visible) on the far right.




There is another chance for snow Tuesday and Wednesday. However, depending on the track of the low, it could turn out to be a mixture of rain and snow. All snow, using a 10:1 ratio, would yield perhaps 8", but that is on the upper end at this time.