TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go; All teams returned home
TWISTEX Status Tuesday: Likely No-Go
...Severe Weather Outlook...
An upper low over KS/OK/TX as well as states that border Lake Erie/Ontario will be the focus for Tuesday's possible stormy weather. Specifically across the Southern Plains, tomorrow appears to be primarily hail and wind threats as it will be dominated by northwesterly winds aloft. Dodge City's sounding looks fairly impressive as winds are backed at the surface, then veer with height, but EHI and helicity values are lacking perhaps from 10kt winds from sfc/650mb (~4000ft). Definitely can't rule out a tornado threat down in the panhandles of OK/TX tomorrow with any supercell storms.
Thursday and Friday of this week features some shortwave troughs moving in at 500mb across the Northern Plains. It appears that the best energy/vorticity will be on both Thursday and Friday morning with weaker pulses pushing through in the afternoon/evening hours. This may mean that the better forcing will not be when storms will be occurring, perhaps limiting the strength of the storms.
The last week of June things quiet should quiet down, at least as far as tornado potential goes as summertime ridge builds out West. The Weather Channel (TWC) was calling for 100 on Sunday in Storm Lake, but I'm not buying my ticket for the century mark. Severe threat for the first part of the last week of June should be focused on hail and wind as shortwave troughs will be confined to the northern tier of states/southern Canada. The latter part of the last week of June will need to be watched as this morning's 12Z GFS exhibits a trough swinging down into the Northern Plains/Ohio River Valley. However, this occurs when the grid-spacing of model changes so will evaluate more tomorrow.
0431Z/11:31PM
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