Verification of simulated WRF radar for today

So a little verification of simulated radar...
I posted this yesterday/Tuesday:

•“12Z WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW graphics show no precipitation until after 0Z, and then spreads in some precip from the west into western SD. Obviously, grid-spacing of the model could potentially hide isolated storms, but there is no formation of any sort of MCS line after dark that I am anticipating. I will be watching this tomorrow and see how it verifies. However, looks like triple point in central SD will be main focus for any development/cap breaking.”

Well, there definitely is a line of storms out in NE. So, either those WRF runs did not perform well or resolving the storms was an issue. I was able to see the clouds that had spread out from the storms in central NE on the horizon in SLB/Storm Lake as high cirrus have cleared off to our east. Winds are fairly strong out of the south with quite a few small branches down in our yard, partially weakened by Feb/Mar ice storms. Possibly even isolated and small power outages as well. Oh, right, line of storms in NE. New MD calls for made a little stabilization as storms get closer to MO River.

While I’m not impressed with those WRFs, I am actually rather impressed by simulated radar from SPC WRF-NMM. It did an okay job getting convection going at near the right time out west and maintaining it into central SD. It was a little late on the convection that has blown up over central NE, but seems like it is doing a fairly good job illustrating what current radar is showing. If it would continue to verify, it would go against the forecasts I’ve heard and the new MD /1053PM issued/. Simulated radar has the line bow out SE so it would go through OAX, and through much of western IA. However, it might be picking up on stabilization in MD as storms weaken as they cross MO River into IA.

Further discussion of ongoing convection shortly and as well as evaluating tomorrow's outlook. It could be a long night so its a good thing I picked up a 6 pack (of IBC cream soda :D )