TWISTEX Status for Monday: No-Go
TWISTEX Status for Tuesday: No-Go
TWISTEX *Unofficial* Status for Wednesday: Go; ISU, MN, Denver teams all go

Severe weather discussion…Short-Term (Wednesday)…00Z NAM/GFS…
00Z/08 (Wed 7PM) ABR sounding shows CAPE over 4000J/kg, helicity of 200+m2/s2, EHI of 4.4 (EHI is severe weather paramter; favorable for tornadoes), BRN of 86 (another severe weather parameter indicates more of a line of storms). Similar soundings at Mitchell (MKE) and Yankton (YKN). Overall, soundings look very impressive with backed winds. While there is inhibition, SPC/WFO (weather forecast offices) feel confident dynamics will break cap.

Both the NAM and GFS have has weakened the low slightly and have the low tracking a bit further south and southeast, respectively.

…Long Term…Friday-Sunday

Low over eastern Dakotas Thursday morning rapidly moves off to the NE into Canada by Thursday evening. Trailing cold front from U.P. of MI down towards Saint Louis will spark make primary threat wind and hail, although with this potent system can’t rule out scattered tornadoes. 18Z sounding for Davenport shows cold front through (or very close). Shear is mostly unidirectional out of SW.

By Saturday morning, cold front is in the OH River Valley, although becomes stalled back as it strectches back through MO/SE KS/NW OK into panhandle of TX. It is likely storms will fire along this stationary/perhaps warm front each of these days as small shortwaves move out. The most impressive shortwave is Saturday evening into Sunday. Also, dryline in TX just hangs out in the western part of the state so isolated supercell are possible. KS/OK border appears under the bullseye for severe weather Friday/Saturday and again into Sunday including panhandles of OK/TX as well. This is broad and general, and I leaned upon SPC/GFS for areas highlighted.

---End weather discussion---

I would stay up for day 2 outlook, but my eyes are tired. If day 2 is high risk, it will be only the second time. I spent too much time at the computer today, and not all weather related, although definitely have looked at a lot of data. It feels good to actually be able to apply something I learned from classes.
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Prayer Requests:
• Continue to pray for Patricia, Darlene, and Andrew (not me)
•Pray for safe travel as folks for Denver will be likely heading out to pre-deploy Tuesday evening. ISU crew will likely be heading out Wednesday early morning. Pray for safe travel for all folks involved.
• Wednesday looks to be a major severe weather outbreak. While no one on this Earth knows for certain what will transpire in the next few days, pray that God would bless the meteorologists with awareness of dangerous and/or life threatening storms so as to be able to give those in the path plenty of time to seek shelter. Pray for the safety of those that may be affected by any storm, and those who may be required in rescue operations.
• If you have a prayer request, feel free to email me.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.