June 29, 2007 Daily Update -- LIVE from Park City, UT

TWISTEX Status for Friday: No-Go
TWISTEX 2007 Operations Ends

…Severe Weather Outlook…Plains…General Trends…
The ridge continues to hold strong over the desert SW comparable in heights to last summer’s heights, except this year its placement is further west. Long range GFS shows an interesting trend. In previous discussions, it appeared that the ridge would weaken by July; however 12Z GFS shows a possible hook up with the Bermuda high. This would set up an interesting scenario with the Southern US baking and dry under very weak upper level flow while the Northern Plains would be hot with chances of storms every once and a while when a trough could push southward. The dry part may be in question as GFS is still painting quite a bit of precipitation over much of the US, but at coarser resolution this is somewhat to be expected. Next major trough to push further south into the US will be in mid July

…Northern Plains…
Lee cyclogenesis on Sunday forms a 1000mb low by Sunday evening thanks to 500mb shortwave trough in the flow in the western Dakotas with some development of thunderstorms in ND/Manitoba. By Monday morning, this area of precipitation has translated eastward through ND into northern MN. As the precipitation lingers on Monday afternoon, it re-intensifies by the evening over northern MN into WI.

Tuesday morning that area of storms has moved into the Great Lakes region and MI while another low forms in South Dakota and transverses SEward into NE. This diverges from the 00Z run where the low formed and strengthened in the Dakotas, moved eastward with warm front along ND/SD border and dryline along the western Plains mixing out. Differences aside, thunderstorms break out across western SD by Tuesday afternoon. These storms appear to die out Tuesday evening, but what’s left of low/warm front kicks up some fireworks over northern IA/extreme southern MN 4 July morning. This area quickly moves out into the southern Great Lake by that evening.

…Southern Plains…
Today features just general thunderstorms across the Southern Plains scattered in nature. Over the next several days, this pattern continues under weak upper level flow and some left over vorticity at 500mb. Stronger storms will be over eastern KS/OK/TX the next two days near the 500mb vorticity, but in general, Southern Plains will be wet with no major synoptic forcing moving through the area. From TX to KS to NC to FL, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the theme. Only hope for clearing out the southern states will be the low that forms in SD Tuesday as it drags a cold front as it exits the US on Saturday/7 July. Even then, storms persist along the Gulf Coast states.700mb RH (gives an idea of the cloud field) displays a line of clouds from OK/KS eastward and south to NC/SC border of a good chance of cloud cover each day across parts of those SE states.

After day 7, a continued stormy pattern seems to be set up. Enjoy!

1911Z/1:11PM MDT
Park City, UT

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Prayer Requests:
• Safe travel as I leave Park City/Salt Lake City, UT and head to Omaha and home late tonight/tomorrow morning.
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Views expressed are solely those of the author, Andrew Ansorge, and may not represent the views of National Geographic and their crew, Iowa State University and the Iowa Board of Regents, Tim Samaras and his crew, other Iowa State University students, or other TWISTEX members.